The "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" for the casting and forging machinery industry faces transformational challenges

At the two branch councils of casting and forging machinery held recently, Liu Jiaxu, chairman of the branch of casting and forging machinery, said that the Outline of the National Medium- and Long-Term Scientific and Technological Development Plan stated brilliantly that “manufacturing is the main pillar of the national economy. China is a big manufacturing country in the world, but it is not yet a manufacturing power; its manufacturing technology base is weak and its innovation capability is not strong; products are mainly low-end; manufacturing processes are resource-intensive, energy is consumed, and pollution is serious.” These problems have been cast and forged in China. The industry is particularly prominent. Compared with foreign advanced manufacturing countries such as Germany and Japan, our country generally lags behind in equipment of all categories. The exceptions are obvious to all.

There are three major problems Liu Jiaxu pointed out that from the analysis of the industry's "Eleventh Five-Year Plan" development situation, the inadequacies mainly exist in three areas.

The first is that it is not refined, but it is big and not strong. Casting machines and forging machines are traditionally considered to be simple and extensive equipment, and their use environment is far worse than other machine tools. Although there are a considerable number of high-level products, sophisticated manufacturing equipment, forging equipment and even complete sets of production lines, it is still difficult to change the status of low entry barriers and extensive manufacturing. China's foundry and forging machinery industry still has a long-term existence of complete varieties of specifications, but there is a shortage of medium and low-end products and high-end products. This has been proved by the import and export data of China's forging machinery in 2010: imports are 3.3 times that of exports, and imported CNC forging presses are 1.78 times that of all exports. The contrast between the import and export of foundry machinery is exactly the same. This reflects the significant increase in market demand for mid- to high-end products, and also reflects the obvious shortage of domestic high-end products in terms of technical level and output value, and can not meet user needs in terms of product quality, technical indicators, and user services. For small and medium-sized and common-type products, we have only solved the problems, high-end products still rely on imports; in large, heavy, special equipment, the problem is more prominent. Our domestic market share of CNC machine tools has reached 57%, but this share of the data constitutes most of the low-end CNC machine tools, part of the high-end ratio is low. Comparing China's self-designed and manufactured large-scale free-forging hydraulic press and the 185MN free-forging hydraulic press co-produced by CITIC Heavy Industries and Germany, not only can the technical indicators not keep up, but there are gaps in both hardware and software. We lack a lot of in-depth technology, such as the program-controlled linkage technology of the hydraulic press and the forging operation machine.

Second, poor innovation capability, lagging technological progress, large resource consumption, and low value-added products.

In general, China's foundry machinery and forging machinery enterprises are not strong in innovation. Many companies are more willing to choose the latter between technological innovation investment and expanding industry scale. In an environment with strong market demand, the expansion of industry scale can achieve short-term benefits, but it does not necessarily have long-term benefits. This short-term behavioral tendency has both the autonomy of the enterprises and the promotion of local governments. Due to the backward management of enterprises, although we invest more manpower and material resources than abroad, our products have poor comprehensive performance, poor reliability, short life cycle, and rough appearance, and can only rely on low-price competition. Products with poor quality and low technical content are not at all value-added products. The price of domestically produced equipment with the same configuration and the same basic functions is only 1/3 to 1/2 of the price of similar products in Germany, Italy, Japan and other countries; although we are unwilling, foreign products are in-depth in accuracy, reliability, and design. , fine workmanship and other areas are indeed better. In terms of high-end and special-type products, the awareness of innovation and innovation of European, American and Japanese companies are worth learning and learning from. Due to poor corporate management capabilities, lack of talents, and insufficient attention to talent strategies, we are basically in the stage of imitating or imitating re-innovation. The ability of independent innovation is very low, and original technology is seriously lacking.

Thirdly, it focuses on the importance of lighter and lighter hardware, lighter hardware and software, and focuses on “doing” and “doing well”. In recent years, China's foundry machinery and forging machinery industry have continued to develop at a high speed, and most companies in the industry have achieved remarkable development achievements. With the rapid development, the most common feature of enterprises is the rapid expansion of business scale, and has become a kind of "development inertia" of industry enterprises.

Many companies have grown bigger and bigger, but they have overlooked the connotation and development of enterprises. Compared with the past, we can really do a lot of equipment that we could not do in the past, such as some large-size, large-tonnage products, and some multi-process composite products. However, these products have not yet reached a high level of precision. Most of the products only stay in the initial stage of “can do” and there is still a large gap between “doing well” and “making features”. We unilaterally attach importance to the expansion of hard power such as manufacturing capabilities, and to a certain extent neglect the construction of soft power such as technological innovation capability, market operation ability, management ability, and cultural connotation. In product development, the realization of tangible functions and specifications, ignoring the construction of intangible value-added technology; in product manufacturing, tangible equipment capacity building while ignoring knowledge accumulation, process improvement and stable quality assurance system construction; in the market In terms of development, we value order fulfillment and neglect user services, user experience, and user value-added services. All these are the important factors that restrict the increase of the competitiveness of the high-end products in the industry. The market is not optimistic. In 2010, the heat market for heavy and heavy machine tools was the first to cool down. Since the second quarter of this year, the domestic machine tool market has significantly declined. From the statistics of the industry, although the overall output and growth level of the industry are still at a high level due to inertia, they have shown a clear downward trend. The most prominent performance is twofold.

Firstly, the inventory of finished products has increased by a large margin (up to the end of August, the total inventory of finished products in the industry increased by 21%, including 24% for gold-cutting machines and 34% for forging and forming machines);

Second, new orders for enterprises dropped significantly (in August, they were down 51% year-on-year and 35% in the chain).

While the demand in the domestic market is declining, some foreign competitors have launched high-performance, low-price products. Their strategic intent is precisely to target the Chinese market and Chinese competitors. Therefore, no matter the current situation or the future development trend, the main development advantages that we have relied on in the past will gradually disappear and weaken. This will force us to make up our minds to make strategic adjustments. From some of our current situation, some of the companies in the forging industry are greatly affected by the market blockage of small and medium-sized machine tools, and some of them are in trouble due to export restrictions, and some have higher numerical control rates. The product market is mainly for the domestic market and is relatively stable for the time being. However, on the whole, industry companies generally faced a decline in new contracts and tight funding. Due to the certain advance consumption caused by China’s previous RMB 4 trillion in driving domestic demand, uncertainties in the development trend of the international market, and the political turmoil in some countries, the monetary policy adopted by the United States to solve the debt problem has increased global inflationary pressures. The initial effects of macroeconomic control and other factors have affected the market of China's machine tool industry. After a rapid growth over the past two years, this year began to show signs of slowing growth. At present, industry professionals are paying attention to whether the world economy has a "double bottom" problem. If the crisis occurs again, it is unlikely that governments will again rescue the market on a large scale. The situation in which China's economic growth depends on exports and investment has not fundamentally changed. At present, the growth momentum in these two aspects has obviously declined. It can be expected that macroeconomic growth will slow down in the coming period, and the growth in demand for the machine tool industry will also slow down. Under the influence of the dual factors of the deceleration of growth rate, the adjustment of the structure of the whole society, and the mode of transfer, the current market demand structure is accelerating. This trend will make the contradictions in the industrial structure that could not be satisfied in the middle and high-end markets and the overcapacity in the middle and low-end markets become more prominent. It is imminent to adjust the structure and transfer methods. Facing severe challenges In the current economic situation, industry companies will face a new round of severe challenges. The production cost and various expenses of the enterprise have been or will be increased, mainly in the following aspects.

First, raw material prices rose. As of August this year, the category of ferrous metals rose by 11.6%, and the fuel power category rose by 11%.

Second, rising labor costs. In the past two years, the return of China's labor force has been on an upward trend, which has further reduced the profits of enterprises.

Third, the appreciation of the renminbi is still expected. Since the exchange rate reform, the renminbi has appreciated by more than 30%. This year, the appreciation of the renminbi may reach 4% to 5%. In the face of rising energy and raw material prices and pressures on interest rates and exchange rates, companies are expected to further reduce their exposure to large orders and long orders.

Fourth, the company's financial expenses increased. Since the beginning of this year, the central bank has raised the deposit reserve ratio six times in a row. The interest rate for small and medium-sized enterprises has generally risen. The difficulty in making purchases has further increased, and the capital chain of enterprises has undergone severe tests. V. The occupation of funds for finished goods has increased. At the same time, the use of funds for finished goods and account receivables rose sharply, which exacerbated the company’s financial difficulties. According to the information obtained by the sub-committee, users have delayed the delivery of goods, or requested the extension of the contract, and some users have even terminated the contract without losing the deposit. These conditions have aggravated the company’s capital backlog. The automotive industry is the largest user of the machine tool industry. Its annual machine tool expenditure accounts for about 40% of the total consumption of the machine tool industry. To a certain extent, the automotive industry is a barometer of the economic situation of the machine tool industry. China's auto market has experienced an average annual growth rate of 25% for ten years, especially after the “explosive” growth in 2010, this year has entered a new round of adjustment cycles. Accumulated to August, China's automobile production and sales were 11.86 million and 11.98 million, respectively, an increase of only 3% and 3.3%.

According to predictions from relevant persons of the Automobile Association, the sales of automobiles will increase by 5% over the previous year. This is a clear contrast to the previous year's average annual increase of 25%. In addition to the automotive industry, the construction of high-speed railways has also entered the adjustment cycle. The state's regulation of real estate has begun to show its effectiveness. Taking into consideration various factors, the economic outlook in the short term is still uncertain, and it is expected that the overall trend in the coming months will still be a slow decline. The participating companies believe that they should pay close attention to the market while actively responding to the preplans, plan their overall arrangements on various resources such as capital and production capacity, and apply them rationally; they must make painstaking efforts to advance technological progress and adjust product structure; Give play to the strengths of their respective companies, form differentiated core competencies, and seek opportunities for survival and development under increasingly changing market conditions. Linking European machine tool makers to issue industry deceleration warnings As the European economy is likely to experience a recession, two recent industry reports have indicated that European machine tool sales will show signs of slowing. In the report, the German Machine Tool Manufacturers Association (VDW) pointed out that the demand faced by its member companies has recently dropped significantly compared with the strong growth in the first half of this year. At the same time, the European Machine Tool Manufacturers Association (CECI鄄MO) also pointed out that the terrible prospects in the financial sector have cast a shadow over the positive results of the world's top machine tool exhibition EMO. Uncertainty in financial markets has spread to the industrial sector and may affect the growth rate of the industry in 2012. In Germany, according to VDW statistics, in the third quarter of 2011, new orders from the German machine tool industry showed some slowdown after strong growth at the beginning of the year. Despite this, from January to September 2011, German machine tool orders increased by 74% year-on-year. Wilfried Sch觌fer, executive director of VDW, pointed out that since the beginning of this year, the order book of the German machine tool industry has performed well, but the quarterly growth rate has declined in the quarter, especially in the third quarter. In October, the capacity utilization rate of the German machine tool industry reached 95.5%, a significant increase from 75.4% in October 2010. At the same time, from January to September, the output of German machine tools increased by 36% year-on-year. According to VDW's forecast, the annual production of German machine tools for 2011 will increase by 33% compared to the previous year, which is better than previous expectations. Despite this, VDW members have lowered their growth expectations in the coming months. Given the ongoing uncertainty in the current financial markets, especially the continual spread of the European debt crisis, companies expect the outlook for the coming months to be bleak. Sch觌fer pointed out that these external factors have been superimposed on the trend of normal cycle demand. But these effects are different for different machine tool manufacturers. For enterprises that produce customized machines, the development of the company will be relatively stable due to the long production cycle and the products are mainly used in industries such as automotive, energy and aircraft manufacturing. CECIMO pointed out that the current financial market situation poses a threat to the development of the manufacturing industry because banks will be unable or unwilling to provide loans to machine tool manufacturers and their downstream industry users. The lack of funds will seriously hurt the development of the industry. In spite of this, due to the strong growth of European machine tool orders starting from 2010, and this situation has continued until 2011, it has laid the foundation for the overall production growth of CECI鄄MO.

At present, the output value of European machine tool manufacturers this year has increased by 4.1 billion euros (approximately 5.5 billion U.S. dollars) from the same period of 2010. It is estimated that the total annual production value in 2011 will reach 20.7 billion euros (about 15.5 billion U.S. dollars), and the growth rate is about 25%.

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