Passive Reform of the Railway Needs to Be Cautious in Construction Machinery Market

On March 21, 2012, Premier Wen Jiabao presided over the executive meeting of the State Council to discuss the adoption of the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan for Comprehensive Transportation System” to determine the mission objectives of the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” and promote the construction of transportation infrastructure. Focusing on the timely initiation of a large number of key railway projects this year, the railway construction has ushered in the spring of policy support. However, based on the status quo of railways, the influx of a large number of railway projects is an opportunity or a pressure for the Ministry of Railways. Should the construction machinery industry, which is closely linked with the construction of railways, seize the opportunity to invest in the market?

Passive reform of the railway has been a crisis. The “Ministry of Railways” has undergone many reforms for more than 20 years of “government-enterprise separation”. On March 18, 2012, the State Council approved the National Development and Reform Commission’s “Key Work on Deepening Economic System Reform in 2012”. "Opinions," This year we must study and formulate plans for the reform of the railway system in accordance with the requirements of separation of government and enterprises, separation of government and capital, and instruct relevant departments such as the Ministry of Railways and the National Development and Reform Commission to implement them. According to reports, the Ministry of Railways will carry out structural reforms by incorporating the Ministry of Transport.

In the past 20 years, the three large-scale reforms of the Ministry of Railways have all ended in failure. This time the direct proposal of “separation of government from enterprises and separation of government and capital” will inevitably damage the “real power” interests within the railway. In the face of such a huge system, the state’s policy is to It is difficult to make overall improvements. Some railway projects that were suspended in 2011 will have to be resumed this year. This year's newly-built railway projects will be arduous. The passive reform of the Ministry of Railways will inevitably put pressure on this year's railway construction.

For the construction machinery in the low tide of late 2011, the expansion of railway projects will undoubtedly enable construction machinery to open the market for freezing in winter, and engineering machinery will gain an indirect spring in terms of seasons and policies. It is a trend for construction machinery to rebound from a low tide, but the market investment in the early stage Steps need to be careful.

The heavy construction of railways hinders the investment of 460 billion yuan in 2012 and the plan of “four vertical and four horizontal” must be completed. There are 249 large and medium-sized national and joint-rail railway projects, of which 63 are for closing sales, and 177 for continuing construction. Obviously, the task of railway construction this year is unusually heavy. In addition to ordinary railways, there are railroads such as high-speed railways, speed-increasing lines and light rails. After the "7.23" train accident in 2011, the Ministry of Railways' problems have entered the public's attention and safety management. Complex environments have to be considered.

The scale of railway construction investment in 2012 was 406 billion yuan, but far less than the amount of investment in 2011. There are many tasks for railway projects this year, and the high debt ratio of the railway ministry, the key is whether the follow-up capital of the project and the profitability after completion can be achieved. Ensure normal production and operation. Some assessment agencies expect that the debt ratio may exceed 60% to 65% by the end of last year. By 2012, the debt ratio of the Ministry of Railways will exceed 70%. Only relying on the state to invest more than 400 billion yuan, the goal for railway construction is very difficult.

There is a close connection between construction machinery and railway construction. The expansion of the railway scale directly affects the market sales of construction machinery. However, railway construction faces many difficulties. The goal of railway construction in 2012 is difficult to complete. Therefore, construction machinery with a direct relationship cannot be seen. The quasi-policy has been blindly put into the market, taking into account the actual conditions of railway construction, and avoiding the recurrence of excess mechanical capacity.

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