At present, China's automobile industry has entered a steady and mature development stage after experiencing rapid development and disorderly competition in recent years. With the evolution of the Chinese auto market, the impact of China's formal accession to the WTO on the opening of the auto market will be within the next 10 years. China's auto industry will face eight trends:
First, the domestic car prices are still declining.
With the continuous technological maturity of the automotive industry, the improvement of the management level of auto companies, the reduction of operating costs, and the significant reduction of international purchases of raw materials and component tariffs after China’s accession to the WTO, the reduction of circulation costs brought about by the reform of circulation channels. , Chinese and foreign automotive brands in the domestic market, such as fierce competition, will make the domestic car prices become cheaper. It is estimated that after 10 years, the prices of cars with the same displacement and configuration will drop by about 20% from the current level.
Second, upstream and downstream auto companies began to dock.
With the development of economic strength and technological strength, some domestic well-known brands of automotive companies are no longer simply a node in the industry chain (for example, just assembling or relying on the introduction of a vehicle model technology), but began to gradually Has its own core technology. A company's industrial layout began to expand toward the relatively complete industrial chain. For example, in recent years, the dark horse-chery company in the automotive industry has grown from an outsourced engine to have its own engine plant, and has jointly developed with other foreign companies high-performance VTC engines with independent intellectual property rights and core technologies. In this way, the development of the upstream and downstream docking system has made the competition of Chinese auto companies not only stay at the price level of products, but also the system competition of the entire industry chain.
The third is the development of products toward e-ization.
The current state of automotive products in the home is basically the existence of a relatively single transport function, and simple e-car products have just come out. However, in the next 10 years, microcomputers will be widely used in automotive products. The products will be fully e-engineered and will be more intelligent and user-friendly in terms of automotive comfort, agility and IT.
Fourth, China will become the world's largest automotive manufacturing base.
From recent time, Japan’s Toyota, GM, Ford, and Germany’s Volkswagen and other international auto giants have increased investment in the Chinese auto industry. It can be seen that in the next 10 years, China is still in the catch-up period for the developed countries’ automotive industry. Domestic auto companies will continue to follow the international automotive industry's technological development trend, seize the opportunity of adjustment of the global industrial structure, soberly review their own resource endowments, make good use of their comparative advantages and late-coming advantages, and become the world's largest auto manufacturing base. The annual output value of the automotive industry is expected to reach several hundred billion US dollars. The competitiveness of Chinese-produced cars in the world is further enhanced, and the strong brands of Chinese automobiles will begin to expand in the true sense of the global market.
Fifth, the automobile enterprise center will be fully transferred.
After the development to a certain scale, the well-known automobile group will begin to look for new "vitamins" such as capital, information, technology, talents, etc., such as: "Chang'an" to enter e-commerce, other industry companies to enter the automotive industry, etc. Wait. At the same time, with the internationalization of auto companies, many enterprise centers will be adjusted again, with emphasis on the development of the international market.
Sixth, e-commerce has become the mainstream business model for auto companies.
With the development of information technology, changes in circulation formats, and changes in the way end-users shop, e-commerce will become an indisputable reality. Currently, U.S. GM and Ford have achieved 30% of online car purchases in their home countries. In the next 10 years, it is predicted that the total amount of e-commerce will account for more than 60% of the total business volume of the domestic automobile industry. At the same time, the e-commerce space of domestic auto companies will expand to the entire global market, instead of being confined to the domestic market as it is now.
Seventh, the manufacturing model will shift to mass customization.
In the catch-up of the automotive industry in developed countries, Chinese auto companies have a one-sided emphasis on product technology trends, and insufficient attention has been given to flexible process technologies such as production models. Under the urging of information technology, the production modes of various manufacturing industries in the world are undergoing profound changes, that is, the transition from large-scale production models to large-scale customization models that satisfy customer needs to the maximum. The ability to quickly transform and use new production models will become an important strategic choice affecting the future international competitiveness of Chinese auto companies.
Eighth, the internal and external systems and management environment of auto companies will be fully integrated.
The essence of the enterprise competition in the international market is the competition of the enterprise system. Recently, apart from technical factors, the gap between the Chinese auto companies and the developed countries' auto companies is more important than the gap between the enterprise system and the management level. At present, China's auto companies are mainly the reform of the enterprise's own system and the reform of its external operating system environment. With the gradual development after China’s accession to the WTO, the process of institutional reform of China’s auto companies will be further accelerated, and the management of water will be further improved. In the next 10 years, China's auto companies will experience new changes in their internal and external institutional environments and management levels. That is, the institutional environment will be fully integrated with the international community. The Chinese auto companies that have greatly reduced the gap between their systems and management levels in developed country auto companies will achieve unprecedented results. Market Competitiveness.
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