Due to weather and other factors this year, the price of fertilizers in the early stage of the country was not sustained during the spring farming season. Although the return of green crops to wheat has ended in northern China, urea prices have continued to rise in the east China due to heavy demand for spring plowing and industrial use. The short-term increase rate has reached 80-100 yuan/ton. In the later period, the southern market will be gradually started due to the need for planting rice in April.
In the international market, urea prices also rose sharply. Taking the Arabian Gulf large-granule urea FOB as an example, it has risen by US$190/ton since the beginning of the year to reach US$547/ton. If India is the target market, the cost difference between China and China’s exports is not significant. According to the domestic off-season tariff, the price is equivalent to the domestic tax-free price of 2,680 yuan/ton, which is 300-400 yuan more than the current domestic price. Space, there is expected arbitrage space. The export season of urea during the off-season in 2012 is from July to October. With the arrival of the export off-season window, large domestic manufacturers with capital advantages will reduce domestic supply and increase inventory to prepare for export. It is expected that domestic prices will continue to gradually increase in the later period.
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