On the eve of “11,†the National Energy Administration issued the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan for Solar Power Development†(hereinafter referred to as “Planningâ€). "Planning" proposed that by the end of 2015, China's installed capacity of solar power will reach more than 21 million kilowatts, which means that China's installed photovoltaic power generation capacity is expected to expand by more than six times in the next three years.
Experts pointed out that at the time of the European Union’s investigation of China’s anti-dumping of PV products, the relevant authorities of the country have encouraged the rapid development of the domestic PV market. It is clear that there is a risk of hedging the risks of the PV industry, and it is expected to bring a dawn to the Chinese PV companies on the verge of desperation.
Strong start of the domestic market
According to the "planning", by the end of 2015, China's installed capacity of solar power will reach more than 21 million kilowatts, with an annual output of 25 billion kwh. Among them, the total installed capacity of distributed photovoltaic power generation is set at 10 million kilowatts, the total installed capacity of grid-connected photovoltaic power plants is 10 million kilowatts, and the total installed capacity of solar thermal power plants is 1 million kilowatts.
The installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation in China is expected to expand by more than 6 times in 3 years
It is understood that the current construction cost of photovoltaic power plants is approximately 10,000 yuan per kilowatt, and the distributed photovoltaic power generation system is approximately 15,000 yuan per kilowatt. Based on this calculation, to achieve the 2015 target, the total investment demand is about 250 billion yuan.
Zhao Yuwen, director of the Photovoltaic Committee of the China Renewable Energy Society, said: “As of the end of 2011, the total installed PV capacity in China was only 3.6 million kilowatts, and it is estimated that it will reach 7 million kilowatts by the end of this year. In the next three years, China will increase its annual installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation. 4 million kilowatts to 5 million kilowatts are required."
In view of the high cost of power generation and poor management of grid-connected operation during the development of domestic solar energy, the “Plan†proposed that it would combine the reform of the power system and the reform of the electricity price mechanism to improve the solar power policy system and development mechanism and establish favorable The market competition mechanism and power operation management mechanism for the development of distributed renewable energy power generation create a good system and mechanism environment for the development of the solar power industry.
Lin Boqiang, director of the China Energy Economic Research Center at Xiamen University, said that the cost and grid connection has always been a major issue that has constrained the large-scale development of China's solar power generation. If we can solve the problem of solar power generation costs and grid connection, it will greatly enhance the ability of the domestic market to digest photovoltaic products, which will help ease the current overcapacity of photovoltaic companies.
However, Lin Boqiang also pointed out that the installed capacity of 21 million kilowatts is the overall target for the next three years. In 2011, China's photovoltaic capacity has reached 3.6 million kilowatts, and will reach 7 million kilowatts in 2012. The domestic market still cannot completely absorb the surplus of the photovoltaic industry. Capacity. In the coming year, some PV companies will fall into the dilemma of bankruptcy.
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US and European pressures bring opportunities
In fact, since the National Development and Reform Commission issued the “Guidance Catalogue for Industrial Structure Adjustment†in 2005 to encourage the development of clean energy power generation equipment manufacturing industry, China’s photovoltaic industry has entered a period of explosive growth of 5 years. From 2006 to 2010, the annual output of solar photovoltaic cells in China increased by more than or close to 100% for five consecutive years.
Although China's photovoltaic industry has developed rapidly, it still lags behind in its core technologies, mainly adopting high-purity polysilicon from Europe and the United States, and re-exporting photovoltaic products to overseas models. This makes China's PV companies in a weak position in the international competition, not only can not get rid of foreign technology control, but also difficult to escape from dependence on foreign markets.
The data shows that more than 90% of China's photovoltaic products rely on the international market. Among them, the US market accounts for 10%, and the EU market accounts for more than 60%. Excessive reliance on foreign markets has brought many variables to the development of China's photovoltaic industry.
After the European Union imposed anti-dumping measures on China's photovoltaic products, the Ministry of Commerce has sent a delegation to the EU to conduct trade negotiations. Domestic photovoltaic companies are also actively cooperating with the EU investigation. However, according to experts, the possibility of winning the EU withdrawal is not great.
As Europe and the United States market accounted for the vast majority of China's photovoltaic product exports, the two major markets step by step "encirclement and suppression" to China's photovoltaic companies have brought tremendous pressure, even a devastating blow.
Based on this, the "Planning" promulgated this time is expected to break the above unfavorable situation, and it is also expected to bring a dawn to the domestic photovoltaic companies that are in desperate need.
Zhao Yuwen said that under the unfavorable external environment of the “double reverse†between China and the United States, the introduction of the policy can guide enterprises to accelerate the pace of turning to the domestic market, and thus hedge the risks brought by foreign markets to some extent.
Wu Zhonghu, a researcher at the Energy Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission, also said that due to the "double reverse" effect of the United States and Europe, China's photovoltaic industry is currently facing tremendous external pressure, but this also provides a good opportunity for the development of China's photovoltaic market. Under the current situation, China's photovoltaic companies should seize the opportunity to accelerate the adjustment of market structure and product structure.
Liang Tian, ​​deputy director of Yingli Group’s president’s office, believes that the issuance of “Planning†is a good signal that the country has not seen the decline, but rather favored the photovoltaic industry, and also provided PV investors with information on the quantity and layout of future production capacity. At the same time Liang Tian also said that although the "Planning" long-term positive for the photovoltaic industry, but from planning to implementation of the project requires a cycle, so the short-term boost the power of fear may be limited, photovoltaic companies more important is to go through this immediate can.
Han Xiaoping, chief information officer of China Energy Network, believes: “PV companies must pay for the blind expansion of previous years. The focus of the “planning†is to promote the development of the entire industry, not to save some loss-making enterprises. The elimination of a group of enterprises is of positive significance for optimizing the industrial structure."
It can be seen that China's photovoltaic industry is gradually approaching reshuffle, most SMEs will face bankruptcy crisis, and the entire industry chain will also face great integration. In the short term, China's PV companies are unlikely to see any improvement. It remains to be seen further whether they can successfully break through.
Experts pointed out that at the time of the European Union’s investigation of China’s anti-dumping of PV products, the relevant authorities of the country have encouraged the rapid development of the domestic PV market. It is clear that there is a risk of hedging the risks of the PV industry, and it is expected to bring a dawn to the Chinese PV companies on the verge of desperation.
Strong start of the domestic market
According to the "planning", by the end of 2015, China's installed capacity of solar power will reach more than 21 million kilowatts, with an annual output of 25 billion kwh. Among them, the total installed capacity of distributed photovoltaic power generation is set at 10 million kilowatts, the total installed capacity of grid-connected photovoltaic power plants is 10 million kilowatts, and the total installed capacity of solar thermal power plants is 1 million kilowatts.
The installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation in China is expected to expand by more than 6 times in 3 years
It is understood that the current construction cost of photovoltaic power plants is approximately 10,000 yuan per kilowatt, and the distributed photovoltaic power generation system is approximately 15,000 yuan per kilowatt. Based on this calculation, to achieve the 2015 target, the total investment demand is about 250 billion yuan.
Zhao Yuwen, director of the Photovoltaic Committee of the China Renewable Energy Society, said: “As of the end of 2011, the total installed PV capacity in China was only 3.6 million kilowatts, and it is estimated that it will reach 7 million kilowatts by the end of this year. In the next three years, China will increase its annual installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation. 4 million kilowatts to 5 million kilowatts are required."
In view of the high cost of power generation and poor management of grid-connected operation during the development of domestic solar energy, the “Plan†proposed that it would combine the reform of the power system and the reform of the electricity price mechanism to improve the solar power policy system and development mechanism and establish favorable The market competition mechanism and power operation management mechanism for the development of distributed renewable energy power generation create a good system and mechanism environment for the development of the solar power industry.
Lin Boqiang, director of the China Energy Economic Research Center at Xiamen University, said that the cost and grid connection has always been a major issue that has constrained the large-scale development of China's solar power generation. If we can solve the problem of solar power generation costs and grid connection, it will greatly enhance the ability of the domestic market to digest photovoltaic products, which will help ease the current overcapacity of photovoltaic companies.
However, Lin Boqiang also pointed out that the installed capacity of 21 million kilowatts is the overall target for the next three years. In 2011, China's photovoltaic capacity has reached 3.6 million kilowatts, and will reach 7 million kilowatts in 2012. The domestic market still cannot completely absorb the surplus of the photovoltaic industry. Capacity. In the coming year, some PV companies will fall into the dilemma of bankruptcy.
US and European pressures bring opportunities
In fact, since the National Development and Reform Commission issued the “Guidance Catalogue for Industrial Structure Adjustment†in 2005 to encourage the development of clean energy power generation equipment manufacturing industry, China’s photovoltaic industry has entered a period of explosive growth of 5 years. From 2006 to 2010, the annual output of solar photovoltaic cells in China increased by more than or close to 100% for five consecutive years.
Although China's photovoltaic industry has developed rapidly, it still lags behind in its core technologies, mainly adopting high-purity polysilicon from Europe and the United States, and re-exporting photovoltaic products to overseas models. This makes China's PV companies in a weak position in the international competition, not only can not get rid of foreign technology control, but also difficult to escape from dependence on foreign markets.
The data shows that more than 90% of China's photovoltaic products rely on the international market. Among them, the US market accounts for 10%, and the EU market accounts for more than 60%. Excessive reliance on foreign markets has brought many variables to the development of China's photovoltaic industry.
After the European Union imposed anti-dumping measures on China's photovoltaic products, the Ministry of Commerce has sent a delegation to the EU to conduct trade negotiations. Domestic photovoltaic companies are also actively cooperating with the EU investigation. However, according to experts, the possibility of winning the EU withdrawal is not great.
As Europe and the United States market accounted for the vast majority of China's photovoltaic product exports, the two major markets step by step "encirclement and suppression" to China's photovoltaic companies have brought tremendous pressure, even a devastating blow.
Based on this, the "Planning" promulgated this time is expected to break the above unfavorable situation, and it is also expected to bring a dawn to the domestic photovoltaic companies that are in desperate need.
Zhao Yuwen said that under the unfavorable external environment of the “double reverse†between China and the United States, the introduction of the policy can guide enterprises to accelerate the pace of turning to the domestic market, and thus hedge the risks brought by foreign markets to some extent.
Wu Zhonghu, a researcher at the Energy Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission, also said that due to the "double reverse" effect of the United States and Europe, China's photovoltaic industry is currently facing tremendous external pressure, but this also provides a good opportunity for the development of China's photovoltaic market. Under the current situation, China's photovoltaic companies should seize the opportunity to accelerate the adjustment of market structure and product structure.
Liang Tian, ​​deputy director of Yingli Group’s president’s office, believes that the issuance of “Planning†is a good signal that the country has not seen the decline, but rather favored the photovoltaic industry, and also provided PV investors with information on the quantity and layout of future production capacity. At the same time Liang Tian also said that although the "Planning" long-term positive for the photovoltaic industry, but from planning to implementation of the project requires a cycle, so the short-term boost the power of fear may be limited, photovoltaic companies more important is to go through this immediate can.
Han Xiaoping, chief information officer of China Energy Network, believes: “PV companies must pay for the blind expansion of previous years. The focus of the “planning†is to promote the development of the entire industry, not to save some loss-making enterprises. The elimination of a group of enterprises is of positive significance for optimizing the industrial structure."
It can be seen that China's photovoltaic industry is gradually approaching reshuffle, most SMEs will face bankruptcy crisis, and the entire industry chain will also face great integration. In the short term, China's PV companies are unlikely to see any improvement. It remains to be seen further whether they can successfully break through.
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