The upper reaches are stormy, the lower reaches are calm, and the oil stuck in the middle of this dam is teetering.
The National Development and Reform Commission (hereinafter referred to as the "Development and Reform Commission") announced on June 19 that since June 20th, the price of gasoline and diesel will have risen by 1,000 yuan per ton. The original No. 93 gasoline at 5.34 yuan per liter has risen by 0.86 yuan to 6.2 yuan. Yuan/liter.
However, when automakers in Europe and America targeted soaring oil prices and cut production or stopped production of "oil tigers" such as pickup trucks and SUVs, the domestic auto market is now leading the auto market through SUVs.
The price adjustment is on the verge
On June 16th, the oil price in New York market once again hit the $140 mark. Crude oil futures prices for July delivery reached a maximum of US$139.89 per barrel in intraday trading. At this time last year, the crude oil price was only US$66.85 per barrel. US Goldman Sachs predicts that in the next two years, international oil prices may reach 200 US dollars per barrel.
In contrast, due to the government's regulation of refined oil prices, there is still a 40% to 50% drop in China's oil price compared with major international markets.
"Recently, with the sharp increase in international crude oil prices, the domestic oil product price hike has become increasingly serious." An industry analyst believes that one of the consequences of the state subsidy policy is that oil prices have further risen, eventually falling into a "buying up more" In a vicious circle, "the state's subsidy on oil prices will become more and more powerless."
On June 19, Rao Da, Secretary-General of the National Passenger Cars Joint Conference, said: “According to the current economic situation, the country may adjust the price of oil in the near future. If the oil price rushes to 150 US dollars per barrel, the government may have two price adjustments. It will be between 10% and 20%." However, the voice did not drop. On the 20th, a rise in oil prices became a reality. For auto companies, the point in time is not a problem. The problem is how much and how much the auto market will affect the auto market once the government adjusts oil prices. Taking the Beijing market as an example, the current No. 93 gasoline is 6.2 yuan/liter, and there is still a big gap between the prices of Japan and Europe at 10 yuan/liter.
“At the same time, the current third-phase fuel consumption limit standard for passenger vehicles is also a problem for local auto makers. Once the oil price rises to 10 yuan/liter, some large-scale SUVs and large displacements will increase. Long luxury cars will be squeezed into a small market space,†said one industry insider.
Run in the opposite direction
During the Shenzhen Auto Show held on June 5th, Wang Dunming, Vice Minister of KIA Sales Department of Dongfeng Yueda, believes that “the SUV market is a blue sky, and there will be good development.†Yang Feng, Minister of Dongfeng Nissan Market, also stated that the customer has four It is still relatively easy to sell SUVs, and the demand for sales after the earthquake is also clearly improving. According to the statistics of the National Association of Sports Federations, domestic sales of SUVs were 35,000 in May, a year-on-year increase of 43.2%. This year, cumulative sales of SUVs totaled 174,000, an increase of 44.0% year-on-year, and the growth rate was far higher than the 13.7% of cars.
While the market is still hot, domestic auto makers are still increasing their efforts on SUVs and other models. Recently, Toyota plans to increase the production capacity of FAW Toyota's second plant to import the Toyota SUV model RAV4. Yang Hao also said that SUV models are not affected by the impact of oil prices, Nissan September domestic release of the SUV model Qi Jun also has domestic follow-up plans.
Contrary to this, the international market has caused the SUV to be unattended due to high oil prices and economic downturn. According to the latest data released by the United States Automotive Information Corporation, sales of US medium-sized SUVs fell by 24% year-on-year in the first five months of this year. May sales fell by 38% year-on-year in May.
“Fuel fuel economy has always been the focus of automotive R&D, but now it is becoming more and more important.†Han Desheng, president and chief operating officer of General Motors, said in an interview that GM will increase the production of small and medium-sized cars and reduce production by about 70. Millions of pickup trucks and SUVs developed with truck chassis.
At present, GM is planning to close its four pickup and SUV factories in the United States, Canada, and Mexico, and plans to launch a new small-displacement vehicle. At the same time, Ford Motor Company's eight large pickup and SUV plants are also underutilized. Toyota also decided to postpone the production of its SUV model at the US plant for six months, while at the same time it will slow down production capacity than originally planned.
“China’s auto consumption market is still irrational compared to Europe and the United States, and manufacturers are focusing on this feature to increase the SUV's efforts.†Relevant person in charge of an old SUV production company in China said that the joint venture’s plan is also fancy The oil price subsidy policy in the domestic market, "making a profit," is not a long-term strategy.
Car companies save themselves
"The rise in oil prices is an overall trend. If domestic oil prices are in line with international standards, local companies may be irritated," the relevant person in charge of Great Wall Motor Co. said in an interview. For example, he told reporters that the Great Wall of gasoline SUV and diesel SUV production each accounted for 50%, from January to May this year, diesel SUV sales fell more than 40%, gasoline version of SUV sales increased by 30%. "Once gasoline prices rise, the sale of the gasoline version of the Great Wall SUV will certainly not be optimistic."
The source also said that “We will not give up the SUV market, but the next step will be to push the small displacement SUV, while strengthening the core power of technology follow-up.†According to its introduction, the Great Wall is planning to cooperate with Bosch 2.5 TCI engine mass production, this engine will save more fuel than the original 2.8TCI engine. "At the same time, we are also developing small-displacement diesel SUVs to avoid the rise in diesel prices."
“In view of rising oil prices, Nissan is currently in full swing to implement a small-displacement vehicle program.†Yang Lan said that the next step, Dongfeng Nissan will have a small-displacement model. At the same time, in the aspect of technical improvement, the current VQ series engines are also preparing to reduce fuel consumption, and Nissan will consider the adoption of CVT transmission technology at the same level as the popular models.
"The rise in oil prices is certain. Whether it is the SUV or the small-displacement, it will have an impact," said Thomas Towns, head of the hippocampus automotive market. "Many multinational corporations are now starting to research and develop small cars. On the surface, they seem to be affected by the Indian Tata Nano. In fact, this is a trend."
“Current companies should consider the issue of alternative energy as soon as possible, and the implementation of new energy policy is of vital importance.†Lu Weidang, deputy director of Dongfeng Citroen’s marketing department, believes that the pace of development of new energy vehicles is now slow and the market is difficult to start. "The government should introduce a mandatory measure to guide the development of car consumption."
According to Zhong reviewer, the vehicle's way out lies in "up and down": models can go down to CR-V, and large-volume SUVs such as Land Rover's Range Rover gradually shrink into market segments. "In addition to the development of new energy vehicles, the development of a vehicle with a displacement of 2.0 to 2.4 liters near the car's displacement is a short-term solution."
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