Developed countries suffer a greater impact
The European Chemical Industry Council (Cefic) said that last year, chemical production in Europe was estimated to have fallen by 12%, excluding chemical chemicals. However, judging from the situation in the fourth quarter, European chemical industry began to show a rising trend. Cefic predicts that the European chemical industry will increase production by about 5% this year. According to the American Chemical Industry Council (ACC), output of the US chemical industry, which excludes pharmaceutical chemicals, fell by 9.4% last year, and this year it will increase by 3% from last year, but it is still difficult to reach the level before the economic recession. The financial crisis reduced the production of chemical products in the United States and Western Europe by 15% to 16%. According to the current forecast, by the end of this year, the European chemical product output level will not only be 11% lower than in the first quarter of 2008, even more than in 2005. 5% lower.
Alan Eastwood, economic adviser of the British Chemical Industry Association and chairman of the Cefic Economic Forecasting Group, said: “After the government introduced a series of economic stimulus measures in 2009, the European chemical industry finally bottomed out. 2010 will be a transitional year. It will take a little longer to get out of the recession completely."
Strong recovery in emerging economies
Although emerging economies have also suffered from the impact of recession, their impact is relatively smaller than that of developed countries, and the recovery rate of the chemical industry and other manufacturing industries in emerging countries is faster than that of developed countries, and the recovery rate is even greater. .
According to the British Oxford Economic Consultancy, the average growth rate of production of chemical products in Brazil, Russia, India and China in the “BRIC countries†last year was 12.3%. The average growth rate of chemical production of “BRIC countries†is expected this year. It is 13.4%. David Thomas, the company’s chemical industry consultant, said: “Statistical data for the third quarter of 2009 shows that the demand for chemicals is better than previously expected, especially in emerging economies. I’m sure, Global chemical production will rebound strongly in 2010, only 2% below the 2007 peak."
The greatest impetus for the rapid recovery of demand in developing countries stems from the vitality of China. With the introduction and implementation of a series of fiscal stimulus packages by the Chinese government, the country’s economic decline has been reversed in a timely manner. Oxford Economics Consulting predicts that after 16.5% growth last year, China's chemical production will increase by 16% this year.
Thomas pointed out that China's current chemical production has accounted for 17% of the world, this year will continue to expand this share, many new chemical plants in China will be put into production, will reduce the dependence on imported products. According to CBI statistics of Shanghai Commodity Information Service Company, from January to September last year, China's imports of high-density polyethylene increased by 73% year-on-year, and imports of low-density polyethylene increased by more than 85%.
A large number of exports to China benefit the United States
Last year, basic chemical producers in the United States benefited from exporting large quantities of products to China. In the past year, the price of natural gas in the United States dropped by 30%. Manufacturers' use of weaker U.S. dollar and cheap natural gas ensured the cost competitive advantage of their petrochemical products.
According to Kevin Weift, chief economist of ACC, the export volume of basic chemicals in the US chemical industry increased significantly last year. In the first 10 months, plastic products exported by the United States increased by 21.5% compared with the same period of last year, most of which were exported to China and there was a small one. Some exports to East Asia. During this period, the plastic production in the United States actually decreased by 2.5%.
Thanks to the substantial increase in the volume of basic chemical exports, the foreign trade value of the US chemical industry changed from a trade deficit of 2.6 billion U.S. dollars in 2008 to a trade surplus of 2.4 billion U.S. dollars. The ACC is expected to be even better this year than it was last year. The US chemical trade surplus will reach $3.9 billion.
The production line in the Middle East has been put into production
China's expansion of chemicals will inhibit the inflow of bulk chemicals in the Middle East. According to statistics, by 2012, there will be more than 50 petrochemical products and derivatives factories in the Middle East. Some of the major petrochemical producers in the Middle East, such as SABIC, have entered the ranks of the world's largest manufacturers, and their European sales network is currently in place. In this context, this year's European manufacturers will be in a more competitive environment.
Henrik Mainz, senior economist of the German Chemical Industry Association, said: "Although output has increased, many companies are still holding their inventory at a relatively low level because they are uncertain about the future. Manufacturers check their orders every month. Production, not quarterly production, I believe that the full recovery of chemical production will have to wait until the end of 2010 and early 2011, when people are concerned about whether there is enough raw material to meet the growing demand, and then the company's inventory can reach normal levels. â€
Changes in the world's landscape
Mainz and other analysts also believe that even by 2012-2013, European chemicals production will hardly rise back to pre-recession levels. The ACC also believes that the US chemical production can only be restored to its previous level only if it grows steadily for 3 years at an average annual growth rate of 3% to 4%. Swift said: "The recovery of the US chemical industry will be a slow process, because the recovery of some of our major downstream users may take longer. In the case of the US automotive industry, it will need to recover to its peak level. ~6 years or more."
As the domestic market demand is expected to be in a state of depression for a long period of time, chemical producers in developed countries have begun to cut their capital investment in the country. According to ACC, the capital investment in the US chemical industry fell by more than 20% from 2009 to 2010. In stark contrast to this, multinational corporations have built most of their chemical projects in developing countries, making emerging economies increasingly powerful in the global chemical market. Thomas said that currently emerging economies have accounted for 40% of global chemical production, and by 2020 their share will exceed 50%.
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