China's automobile production and marketing countries face a "dilemma" choice

In view of the rapid growth of the auto market last year, the impact of changes in the macroeconomic environment this year, and the adjustment of the automobile industry's policy orientation, this year's domestic auto market is now experiencing a “high-low, low-going, rebounding” operation in this context. The trajectory is also under the influence of various internal and external environmental factors in the "dilemma" choice. How to ensure that the auto market can develop in a healthy and stable manner and avoid fluctuations in ups and downs becomes a policy proposition maker, and that it has to consider the propositions of car manufacturers in the industry.

The "dilemma" of the macroeconomic environment

The appeal of the macro-economic environment has affected the ups and downs of the auto market. After the rapid development of previous years, the Chinese auto market was not immune to setbacks in the global financial crisis that engulfed the world. However, after the country introduced a huge "rescue" plan last year, the Chinese auto market is also boosted by related policies. , It is embarrassingly out of a big sun line, China has also become the world’s number one car production and marketing country. It can be said that if there is no Chinese economy in the world's financial crisis, China's auto market can not be so beautiful.

However, when China’s macroeconomic operations have emerged from a beautiful “V-shaped” rebound, what are the follow-up economic trends? It is necessary to prevent overheating and prevent “secondary bottoming”, and the direction of economic policy tends to be a “dilemma” choice.

The deputy chairman of the NPC Financial and Economic Committee, Yin Zhongqing, wrote a short time ago that "at present, our country is at a fork in the road and our policy choices are dilemma. We should not overreact to the deceleration of economic growth. We must achieve a smooth soft landing and stimulus policy." "Withdraw from" organic convergence. In fact, since the beginning of this year, macroeconomic stimulus policies have gradually faded out. Relevant experts believe that the monetary policy has turned left to turn right. On the one hand, it emphasizes that the active fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy remain unchanged. On the other hand, the scale of credit growth has been adjusted from 9.59 trillion yuan in 2009 to 75,000 in 2010. 100 million yuan.

In the first and second quarters of this year, China's GDP still maintained a high growth rate of 11.9% and 10.3%, and it is estimated that it will be 9-10% in the third quarter. Many experts pointed out that economic growth will moderately decline in the coming quarters.

In addition, inflationary pressures are expected to increase. Wage increase will drive up labor costs and boost corporate manufacturing costs and circulation costs. Although the increase in labor costs can offset some of the increase in labor productivity and economies of scale, it will also affect competitiveness. And to increase the inflation risk in the second half of the year.

In terms of exchange rates, the renminbi is currently close to 6.6 against the U.S. dollar, which has also brought negative factors to car exports. An executive in charge of the export business at BYD Automobile said that a 2-3% appreciation of the renminbi against the US dollar may be affordable, and if it reaches 5%, it will be difficult to cope.

Industry policy orientation "dilemma"

Faced with the transformation of the auto market from a special market under special policy stimulus to a normal market driven by conventional policies, the two directors of the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Commerce have adopted different attitudes in recent days. They believe that the auto industry has completed anti-crisis missions. It is hoped that some special stimulus policies will be abolished; there is hope that the stimulus policies or some of the policies under the special markets will continue to maintain the steady and rapid growth of the automotive market. This also fully illustrates the "dilemma" of the automobile industry policy.

After this year's vehicle purchase tax preferential policies have shrunk, the market share of passenger cars with 1.6 liters or less in the first half of the year has dropped to less than 70% year-on-year. The auto industry is naturally not happy; but the taxation and taxation departments believe that after the reduction in vehicle purchase tax concessions, 1.6 liters in the first half of the year In addition, the absolute sales volume of passenger cars will increase by 59.56% (up from 1.0 liters and below, 40.51% from 1.0-1.6 liters), and the vehicle purchase tax will also increase by 60.1% year-on-year, thus reducing the need for continuation of vehicle purchase tax incentives. Now.

Although auto credit is a powerful means of promoting the auto market, some banks have tightened auto private consumer credit in view of the shrinking credit scale. There is an increase in the car loan interest rate, ranging from 10% to 30%. The increase in the car loan limit includes lending to high-end car customers, increasing the amount of collateral, raising the income and qualification requirements of the lenders, and using property mortgages. Real estate mortgages can only be used for special purposes; there are also extensions of car loan approval time. The growth rate of personal consumer loans, including personal auto loans, rose before and after the first half of the year. The balance at the end of the first quarter increased by 57.0% year-on-year, 8.4 percentage points higher than at the end of the previous year; the balance at the end of the second quarter increased by 53.6% year-on-year, lower than the end of the first quarter. 3.4 percentage points.

In addition, there are still some industry policies that are not effective and still need to be adjusted and improved.

Although the first and second batch of 132 models of the “Energy-saving Products Benefiting the People Project” can enjoy car subsidies, subsidies for new energy vehicles are not transparent in the production area, which is not conducive to sales promotion, and the most common hybrid vehicles are prone to mass production. The subsidy is too low and the promotion effect is extremely limited. New energy vehicles can rarely meet the conditions for support. Despite central and local superposition of subsidies, they cannot be large within a year or two.

Although the old-for-new vehicle policy has been vigorously promoted and the high limit of the subsidy standard has been expanded by three times, it is far from the expected goal and the effect is not obvious. According to the forecast of the National Development and Reform Commission, the amount of scrapped cars in one year should be more than 2 million, and the actual scrapped amount is only 500,000 or 500,000, which is obviously lower than the sales of new cars. The lack of policies for used car trading and the imperfect system are the main reasons.

In the first half of the year, the country subsidized 1.426 million rural vehicles and 54.9 billion yuan in subsidies. However, the relevant state departments still need to continue to improve the measures for the automobile to the countryside, and automobile manufacturers must continuously improve the sales network construction and product maintenance services, giving the car a better and more powerful support for the countryside.

Car market track "dilemma"

From the sales situation of the auto market this year, it is not difficult to find that, in terms of cumulative year-on-year, the auto market still maintains a rapid operation this year. From January to August, the cumulative growth rate of automobile sales was 39.2%, of which the sedan was 33.04%. From the month-on-year comparison, the rapid growth of the auto market has also slowed down. In the first eight months, monthly sales growth slowed from the highest of 124% in January to 14.42% in July, and slightly increased to 16.14% in August. The incentives for stimulating the auto market to be fully or partially extended next year, or canceled in this way, will seriously affect the power of the rebound in the auto market in the fourth quarter, which may release some of the consumer energy of the next year. The trajectory of the auto market has both its own inherent laws and the portrayal of the "difficult" choices in the macroeconomic environment and industrial policies.

In short, this year's rapid growth in the trend of the auto market is an inevitable choice because of the annual average of “planning” lockdown in respect of the growth goal of the “automotive adjustment and revitalization plan” for the three-year period of the global financial crisis. The growth rate is 10%, but it is now over 30%.

Based on the current auto market trend and trend, the auto industry could surpass the expected 15 million sales target this year and it is estimated that it may exceed 16 million vehicles or even higher. However, from the expected completion of the target in the first half of the year, the development of the company is very unbalanced, with SAIC-GM-Wuling reaching more than 60%, and Shanghai General Motors, Dongfeng Nissan, and North-South two mass-market enterprises achieving a target completion rate of more than 50%; and BYD, JAC, etc. The completion rate of some companies such as Hafei and Lifan is less than 40%, and BYD and other companies have had to lower their targets. In the first half of the year, less than 50% and 40% of companies completed their business, and most of them are still in a state of rapid high-speed growth. The adjustment target is indeed a "dilemma" choice, but it is still necessary to be fair and rational.