A paper regulation by the National Development and Reform Commission has brought the coal chemical industry into an embarrassing situation. For the coal chemical industry that has already left “the top trillionâ€, what should be the next step?
Henan Province recently began to adjust the layout of the province's coal chemical structure, focusing on the development of methanol downstream market, in order to deal with the current situation of China's coal methanol production capacity serious excess and the National Development and Reform Commission's regulation of the industry.
On April 16, Henan Province announced that it will focus on reforming and upgrading coal chemical industry, strengthening deep-salt chemical industry this year, forming a 3-million-ton methanol deep processing capacity, and realizing an income of 355 billion yuan in main business above designated size.
“At present, the traditional consumption fields of domestic methanol have long been saturated, and many methanol companies that have already started to enter the methanol downstream product chain.†The relevant person in charge of the Ministry of Industry Development of the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Association told this reporter.
According to its disclosure, one of the main uses of coal-to-methanol is to produce methanol-gasoline, but the current national regulations governing methanol-gasoline have not yet been introduced. This doubtlessly casts a big question mark on whether the consumer market can digest high-capacity methanol gasoline.
"For the methanol fuel, the government has not been clear about its attitude. In 2009, the National Standards Committee published the standard for "vehicle fuel methanol," but this is only a recommended standard, not a national standard, and it cannot fundamentally drive the needs of the methanol industry." The person in charge said.
Over the rest of the expansion?
During the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan†period, expectations for the emerging applications of methanol downstream and coal chemical industry stimulated the investment and production of domestic methanol. The direct result of this investment surge was the rapid rise of domestic methanol companies, and the methanol production capacity continued to double.
Statistics from the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Association show that as of the end of 2010, there were 291 methanol companies in China, with a capacity of 38.4 million tons. Compared to the early period of the “Eleventh Five-Year Planâ€, the production capacity increased by more than three times, and the average annual growth rate Up to 32%.
At the same time as production capacity continues to expand, a large number of methanol companies have to accept serious losses.
The “Circular on Regulating the Orderly Development of the Coal Chemical Industry†issued by the National Development and Reform Commission pointed out that due to the partial emphasis on the coal conversion ratio in some areas, some projects repeatedly introduced unproven technologies, resulting in normal production after completion and huge capital investment could not be realized. Benefits; Some projects were launched blindly, products lacked competitiveness, and market development was lagging behind. At present, the operating rate of methanol plants nationwide is only about 50%, and the dimethyl ether plant is also idle. A considerable number of companies are facing bankruptcy.
The authoritative data show that in 2010, the total methanol output was only 15.87 million tons, accounting for only 44% of the total production capacity. In addition, about half of the devices are idle.
“Some coal-rich provinces have problems with low operating rates. The low-cost impact of imported methanol and the continuing downturn in domestic methanol demand have made it difficult for methanol companies to work hard.†China Nitrogen Fertilizer Industry Association related persons told this reporter Say.
Although coal-to-methanol is facing a serious overcapacity situation, the investment boom of every coal province “everything is inevitable†remains unabated.
In the new round of coal resources integration plan, the Inner Mongolia Municipal Government clearly pointed out that new coal production projects must be synchronized with the construction of transformation projects, as well as high-tech, equipment manufacturing and other ancillary projects, requiring that the conversion rate of raw coal in place must reach more than 50%.
“This is a rigid requirement for coal-producing provinces. Major companies must obtain coal resources in order to obtain coal resources, and Shangmei Chemical must first obtain coal from methanol.†China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Institute, one industry Experts disclosed to this reporter.
In 2010, there were a total of 25 methanol projects under construction that were originally planned to be put into operation in China, with a total annual production capacity of 8.16 million tons. This also means that
In 2011, China's methanol production capacity will exceed 40 million tons. In addition, there are 25 methanol projects in China in the proposed or planned phase, with a total annual capacity of 24.4 million tons.
“In the long run, the coal chemical industry has a broad market prospect, but how to extend the industrial chain, upgrade the industrial structure, and increase economic efficiency are the most pressing issues for the industry.†Hu Qianlin, deputy secretary-general of the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Association, accepted the report. An interview with reporters said.
Downstream products are subject to policy bottlenecks
On the one hand, there is a staking up on the fast track, while on the other side there is resistance from the downstream product chain. Coal-made methanol, which looks "beautiful," is facing a test of survival.
Methanol as an intermediate chemical product, but the direct consumption of only 30%, can largely promote the upstream demand for methanol production mainly from the downstream product chain.
Earlier this year, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced that it will promote high-proportion methanol gasoline M85 and M100 in Minhang District, Shanxi Province and Shaanxi Province from May onwards. This is undoubtedly for the domestic methanol industry that is under heavy overcapacity, weak demand, and import shocks. This is a good news. However, for the overall status of the methanol downstream market, people in the industry generally believe that before the relevant standards and policies are introduced, the promotion of small-scale is just a glass of water.
At the same time, dimethyl ether and olefins, which are also the main downstream products of methanol, can not escape the dual bottlenecks of market demand and lack of policies. According to industry experts, pure dimethyl ether can be used as a substitute for diesel fuel, but it requires a dedicated engine, and the renovation costs about 10,000 yuan each.
It was learned from authorities that the “National Standard for City Gas Dimethyl Ether†will be formally implemented on July 1, 2011. This standard clearly stipulates that DME as a town gas can only be purely combusted and requires dedicated bottles. This means that the production method of liquefied petroleum gas mixed with dimethyl ether will be terminated, and this will further exacerbate the excess capacity of the upstream methanol industry.
According to the available data, the production capacity of formaldehyde, acetic acid, DMF, glyphosate, and other products in the downstream product chain of methanol is currently in serious excess, including overcapacity of formaldehyde by 32%, acetic acid excess by 46%, and DMF excess by 50%. Is glyphosate, the current domestic production capacity has exceeded 22% of global demand.
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