From January to June 2007, China's commercial vehicle sales increased by 25.89% year-on-year to 1.289 million vehicles. Among specific subdivided products, the sales of semi-trailer trucks in heavy trucks increased by 122.83% in the first half of the year, which is still at a stage of ultra-high growth, indicating that the long-haul cargo demand for highways is strong.
The growth rate of truck chassis has also reached 35.09%, which is higher than the average commercial vehicle level. This shows that the adjustment trend of heavy-duty trucks is still the long-distance freight and special-purpose vehicles. Passenger car sales increased by 19.16%, which is lower than the average commercial vehicle level, but still equal to 1.8 times GDP growth.
Sustained growth guaranteed
The growth mechanism of commercial vehicles is different from that of passenger vehicles. As an investment product, its new demand mainly depends on the growth of fixed asset investment, especially infrastructure construction and real estate development investment. In the second half of 2007, investment in fixed assets will continue to grow rapidly.
Looking ahead to the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan†period, fixed asset investment will continue to maintain a rapid growth rate. The construction of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project, West-to-East Power Transmission, Shanghai World Expo venues and the construction of expressways and port airports will all enter the large-scale construction phase one after another. At the same time, real estate development and construction will also maintain steady growth.
For this round of commercial vehicle growth, we believe that this is the beginning of a new round of business cycle, this cycle of business cycle may last 3-5 years. The reason is that the current total commercial vehicle ownership is already at a high level relative to the economic scale. 60%-70% of its demand comes from the renewed use of old cars, which determines its five-year cycle characteristics; on the other hand, domestic commercial use The new demand for cars comes partly from exports, which will increase the growth cycle of commercial vehicles in China.
In the field of commercial vehicles, the key links of supporting systems, such as engines, transmissions, and axles, are controlled by leading companies such as Weichai, China National Heavy Duty Vehicle (Sinotruk), FAW, SAIC, Foton, Jiangling, etc. High enterprise innovation ability is stronger and cost is lower, which determines the long-term competitive advantage. At the same time, due to the convergence of various subdivided product areas of commercial vehicles, the bargaining power of key supporting links has increased, which has determined that companies that have mastered the key supporting links will have more room for development.
As part of the transfer of international manufacturing, the domestic auto parts industry is faced with rare opportunities for development. In particular, parts that are labor-intensive and inconvenient to transport may have high-speed growth that exceeds the average level.
However, this shift in the comparative advantages of labor costs is being challenged by countries such as India and Vietnam. These two countries not only have competitiveness comparable to China in terms of labor costs, but also have considerable competitiveness in domestic demand, steel and other related industries, and capital cities. Therefore, only by seizing current rare opportunities, Rapidly realizing industrial upgrading is the key to maintaining long-term competitiveness.
We believe that only private enterprises have this natural competitive potential. Due to outstanding independent innovation ability and stable quality assurance ability, its ability to undertake industrial transfer is the strongest, and growth is also most worth looking forward to.
Profit rate remains stable
It is difficult to change the trend of the overall decline in automobile prices. However, the decrease in vehicle prices in 2007 has been significantly reduced. Taking into account the overall inflationary expectations of the economy, we believe that it is less likely that the vehicle price will continue to fall significantly.
In the middle of 2007, the main profit margin of listed automobile companies remained stable, the entire vehicle company fell from 16% to 12.5%, and parts and components companies rose slightly from 19.1% to 20.7%, reflecting the cost structure and price of automobile companies. becoming steady. We expect this trend to continue in the second half of 2007.
Cnc Milling Parts,Cnc Machining Parts,Cnc Turning Parts Co., Ltd. , http://www.cnmouldcomponents.com