Jianghuai Automobile: staged a dilemma reversal drama


The company released its semi-annual report. During the reporting period, it achieved operating income of RMB 9.324 billion, an increase of 1.89% year-on-year, operating profit of RMB 109.88 million, a year-on-year decrease of 52.73%, and a net profit of RMB 114 million, a year-on-year decrease of 31.84% and a EPS of RMB 0.09.

The first-half results exceeded expectations, mainly due to the significant increase in profit of commercial vehicles in the second quarter. Due to high-priced raw material inventory and high purchase cost of cars, the company's gross profit margin in the first quarter was only 10.8%, and its loss per share was 0.06 yuan; in the second quarter, the company's gross profit margin increased significantly. To 16.3%, to achieve earnings per share of 0.15 yuan, the biggest contribution is the light truck and Ruifeng, light truck gross margin reached 15%, while Ruifeng gross margin reached 30%;

In the second half of the year, passenger car heavy vehicles were launched. The scale effect gradually reflected that Tongyue had achieved initial success in the first half of the year. Monthly sales remained at the level of 5,000 units. In the second half of the year, with the launch of two new cars, Heyue and BMPV, the economies of scale of the car project gradually increased. Reflecting that the bulk production of self-produced engines will also bring about an increase in the gross profit rate of car products; however, the recent sharp increase in the prices of major raw materials such as steel products will erode the profitability in the second half of the year. It is expected that the gross profit margin in the second half will be slightly higher than that in the first half of the year. The gross profit rate for the year was 14.1%;

The strategic transformation is awaiting success, and the reversal of performance dilemma is a key year for the company's strategic transformation. Energetically expanding the sedan business is the company's most important strategic task; the “Tonure + Hyatt + Yueyue” Three Musketeers will lead the sedan project to success, next year The three cars will collectively contribute more than 160,000 units of sales, and will begin to contribute profits. The company's Ruifeng and light truck assets all belong to competitive businesses with strong competitiveness. With the success of the sedan project, the company’s performance has turned out of its predicament and its investment has reversed. Prominent value;

Investment suggestion: Revise up 09 EPS to RMB 0.3, maintain BUY rating EPS forecast for 2009 from RMB 0.25 to RMB 0.3, maintain unchanged earnings forecast for RMB 0.43, RMB 0.55 for 10-11 years; Considering that the company will successfully achieve strategic transformation And Jianghuai and Chery's reorganization of the company's business, can give the company 20 times the valuation of PE in 2010, a reasonable value of 8.6 yuan; according to the DCF model, the company value of 9.5 yuan per share; maintain Buy rating, target price of 8.8 yuan change.



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