After entering the year of 2006, the growth rate of China's GDP and fixed asset investment did not continue to fall as expected; at this time, the structural adjustment of the development of the heavy and light poles within the truck market has already been put in place. As a result, the truck market finally stopped falling and recovered, and completely out of the slump adjustment period. According to statistics from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, except for China Card, all truck segments in the year from January to September this year saw an overall increase in the number of trucks. The overall year-on-year growth was 11.55%, and the heavy-duty truck market increased by 21.18% year-on-year, which greatly exceeded the forecast of most experts at the beginning of the year. Why does the China Card market remain sluggish from January to September this year, and how will the China Card market develop in the fourth quarter and 2007?
China Card Market began to go out of the second round of adjustment
According to the sales statistics of the China Cards of the China Automobile Association, the major trends of the card market in the period from January to September are six characteristics.
First of all, the second round of adjustment of the China Card market, but the adjustment has basically ended. After 2005, affected by the country’s macroeconomic trends, the internal structure of the trucks began to adjust, and the China Card market shrank again. It entered the second round of adjustment period. In the first half of this year, the China Card market continued to adjust and its sales volume dropped by 14.34% year-on-year. Market share also fell from 12.80% last year to 10.96%. However, after entering the third quarter, affected by the overall strength of the truck market, the market of the China Card began to rebound steadily. Both the production and sales volumes increased significantly year-on-year and month-on-month. From the statistical data, sales from January to September decreased by 7.57 year-on-year. %, but the decline has been reduced by nearly half compared to the first half.
Second, the status of the traditional card-dominated enterprises has been shaken. The monopolization of the China Card market by FAW and Dongfeng is undergoing a change, and its market position is gradually being shaken by newcomers. The market share of new entrants is gradually expanding.
Third, in the low tonnage, the card became the main body of the market. According to statistics, the dominant products of the China Card Market from January to September this year are characterized by low tonnage, light weight, relatively high horsepower, and large tires.
Fourth, the “enhanced†medium-sized card market has experienced rapid shrinkage. The so-called "enhanced" medium-sized card refers to a product with strong overload capacity and is a leading product of Dongfeng and FAW, the main truck manufacturer. The major products include the 1126 and 1094 series. In 2004 and before, the production and sales volume of the two products was close to 90,000 vehicles. However, since the country's over-regulation of governance in 2005, the market segment has been rapidly shrinking, and the decline rate in 2006 was even more pronounced. From January to September, the market size of the segmented market fell to approximately 30,000 vehicles, which accounted for about one-third of the total vehicle market. The main production companies were Dongfeng, FAW and Hubei Sanhuan.
Fifth, the sales volume of the chassis of the Chinese card fell sharply. From January to September, chassis sales of Zhongka totaled 45,667 units, which represented a decrease of 22.77% year-on-year; sales of China Card's total vehicles reached 96,327 units, an increase of 1.93% year-on-year. In the chassis products of China Card, the self-unloading type is the most important chassis type, accounting for more than 70% of the total sales volume of the chassis of Zhongka. The other varieties are special modified products such as the chassis of Zhongca Tank, the chassis of Zhongka Traction, and the cold-stored chassis of Zhongka. . Since 2005, with the country's control over the investment in infrastructure, the market for the dumping of China Cards has begun to show a clear contraction. For the whole year of 2005, the sales of chassis in China Card decreased by 5.59% year-on-year. After entering 2006, the chassis of the Sino-Card unloading chassis became more pronounced due to the strong impact of the heavy-duty dumping chassis.
Sixth, the Midwest market remains the focus of industry competition. In January-September sales of China Card Corporation ranked among the top 9 vehicle manufacturers, Dongfeng Company, Chengdu Trump, Sichuan Yinhe, Shaanxi Automobile Group, Yitu Group, Chongqing Lifan, Hubei Sanhuan, etc. The company takes up 7 seats and has an absolute advantage. In other words, whoever can grasp the pulse of the middle and western markets in the long term will be able to dominate the Chinese card market.
The first echelon of China National Vehicles is facing an impact
In the China Card complete vehicle market, the market positions of veteran companies FAW Group and Dongfeng Company are challenged by the second-tier companies Anhui Jianghuai and Chengdu Trump, and the gap between the four companies is narrowing. Due to the year-on-year growth of total sales of Anhui Jianghuai, Chengdu Trump, and Shaanxi Automobile Group in January-September, the year-on-year increases were as high as 26.09%, 32.22%, and 50.45%, respectively, to the sum of the total market share of the second echelon of the three companies and the Sichuan Yinhe Group. From the 37.27% in 2005 to the current 40.26%, the combined market share of the first-tier companies, FAW Group and Dongfeng, fell from 44.41% in 2005 to 41.39%. The combined market share of new entrants such as Ito Group, Hubei Sanhuan, and Chongqing Lifan, etc., is only 18.35%. In the chassis market of China Card, the sales volume of Dongfeng Company and FAW Group, despite a substantial decline, still dominated the market's absolute dominance, and its market share was as high as 91.15%.
China Card Prospects: Year-end sales are expected to tie the previous year
From the fourth quarter of 2006, the China Card market is expected to rebound slightly. First of all, because the decline of the China Card Market in the first three quarters was mainly caused by the chassis, it has already been explained that the current chassis of the China Card has fallen to the base level, and it has started to rebound in September. Second, the country’s macro-control policies have basically come to an end this year. Therefore, the fourth quarter GDP and fixed asset investment growth rate should be close to the first three quarters, and there is little possibility of further decline. Finally, the current domestic truck market as a whole is well and it is beginning to enter a new round of growth.
Based on this, the author predicts that the Q4 market in the fourth quarter will show a pattern of oscillating upsurges, and the total sales volume of China Card in the end of the year is expected to tie the 2005 level. From the perspective of market segments, the annual growth rate of vehicle sales will be between 4% and 6%, while the chassis decline will not exceed 15%; the overall industry-to- chassis ratio will continue to increase; Midwest Competition in the market is still the key to the contention between the various companies.
Good market prospects in 2007
The main reasons are as follows: -- The steady and steady development of China's per capita GDP will provide a strong guarantee for the truck industry. According to predictions from several domestic and international macro-research institutions, China's GDP growth can still maintain its operating level of over 8% from 2006 to 2010. Obviously, this will create a good economy for the truck industry, including the development of the China Card Industry. surroundings.
- The "two sessions" in March this year particularly emphasized that during the "11th Five-Year Plan" period, we must continue to increase support for "three rural issues" and maintain a good momentum of development in agriculture and rural areas. Farmers' income will be further enhanced. The purchasing power of farmers is increasing and the demand for transportation tools is increasing. A large number of farmers begin to replace or purchase cars. Therefore, rural light trucks, medium trucks, and especially low-tonnage medium trucks with huge market potential will become competitions among truck manufacturers. The goal.
-- At present, the rapid growth of highways and high-grade highways in China, the rapid development of transportation industry, fuel tax and other policies and regulations will be introduced; long-distance highway transportation in the direction of high-speed, intensive, containerization, while also dedicated to short- and medium-distance The rapid, convenient and convenient direction of development has created a good development environment for the China Card Market.
- The state is stimulating the development of the economy. It is believed that a loose financial policy will soon be implemented. Commercial banks and other financial sectors will continue to introduce auto credit varieties and improve the credit system, which will objectively boost the growth of China Card. Buying a cheap, medium-priced card is more expensive than purchasing expensive heavy-duty cards, with less interest on loans, faster cost recovery, and more profit-generating income.
-- China Card Industry is currently a few areas in China's auto industry with independent and independent development capabilities, and has obvious price advantages and market advantages.
-- The export market of China Card is promising. At present, in the domestic vehicle exports, commercial vehicles occupy a very high proportion; while in the commercial vehicle exports, trucks take up a larger proportion. At present, the overseas export markets of Chinese trucks are mainly distributed in markets such as Africa, the Middle East, Southeast Asia, and Latin America. The export products are mainly concentrated in 5 tons and below of medium- and light-duty trucks, and most of them are low and medium-end technologies. truck.
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