The goal of the beginning of the year was a bit high and the auto market blew up the "supply wind"

Just after the autumn air was cool, the auto market was blowing a cool breeze to reduce supply air. In the first half of the year, the market's high goals and low realization allowed some brands to choose to reduce their supply to distributors in the second half of the year. BYD “brought the world first”, followed by Guangzhou Honda, FAW Toyota, GAC Toyota, and Chang’an. Many dealers have said that after this round of rational adjustments, this year's auto market price war is expected to cool down in the second half of the year.

Phenomenon: Toyota, Guangben, Changan secretly reduced supply

After BYD took the lead in publicly announcing the reduction of its annual target, FAW Toyota, GAC Toyota, Changan Sedan, and Guangzhou Honda have also secretly reduced their supply to the Beijing region in the second half of the year.

The first is North and South Toyota. According to Luo Zhenyu, general manager of FAW Toyota Garden Bridge, FAW Toyota’s sales nationwide has dropped by 4% this year, and the Beijing area has been reduced by a larger margin. The actual implementation in the store is equivalent to a 10% reduction in annual tasks. General Manager Li Wenpu of General Motors Toyota Jintong Jingnan Store also stated that manufacturers have lowered their targets nationwide, especially in Beijing, and the monthly number of single-storey cars in the second half of the year will drop to 40 to 50 cars. "At least in the second half of the year, the number of Camry in the market will not be that much," said Li Wenpu.

Although there is not much adjustment for Guangben as a whole, the latter part of the year is likely to become a tight market model. Wang Jingsheng, general manager of Guangben Lishuiqiao Store, said that due to the reduced production of the Fit, the supply of the factory's monthly fit to the store in the second half of the year will be 2-3 units, which is equivalent to downgrading Fit’s full-year sales plan by nearly 40%.

Compared with Japanese brands, Changan Automobile’s supply reduction wind blows even more fiercely, and Chang Lu’s Lu Chang, Manager of the Changfeng Store’s market department, revealed that the current sales task in the store has dropped by about 20%. In addition, he also said that because of the summer heat release holiday, Changan Automobile's supply was significantly reduced in August, of which the Benben mini vehicle volume decreased by 80 compared to July, reaching nearly 40%, but he believes that this situation in the near future Will be eased.

Reasons for early goals are a bit high

In 2009, the production and sales of BYD and Chang’an cars all achieved a doubling increase, and the latter’s year-on-year growth rate was even as high as 157%. Maybe it's a lesson learned from last year's conservative plan and the shortage of cars. This year both set a goal to double again: BYD's goal at the beginning of the year is as high as 800,000, and the absolute increase will be as high as 400,000; Chang'an sedan target will be 275,000 vehicles. It is to increase by 150% on the basis of 2009. Last year was a little conservative. This year, it was a bit too aggressive. The market conditions in the first half of the year poured a cool water over both of them. In the first half of 2010, BYD completed sales of 289,000 vehicles. Changan sedan sales volume reached 107,000 units, and the degree of completion was less than 40%.

"The market situation is not particularly good, no adjustment is not acceptable." Said Su Ping, general manager of BYD Xinminheng Store. He also revealed that although the manufacturers have significantly reduced the amount of tasks, but the accumulated inventory before the need to digest, the current inventory structure is not reasonable, while sales in August declined.

The explanation given by Lu Hao was that due to the recent domestic and regional disasters, the floods in the northeast and the high temperatures in the south caused a decline in Changan sales, which eventually led to the adjustment of the annual plan by the manufacturers.

Toyota recalled door sales decline

North and South Toyota's adjustments have been made together. The main reason for the slow sales of models and the lack of overall growth caused by Toyota recalls. Luo Zhenyu said: "The adjustment is due to the Toyota recall incident. If there is no recall incident, there will be no problem in completing the plan at the beginning of the year." In the first half of the year, FAW Toyota actually completed sales of 238,500 units, and the annual target was 500,000 units, with a degree of completion of only 41.2%. .

In contrast, although GAC Toyota has basically completed its six-year goal, it is based on the price of a substantial dive, the price drop of its main model Camry once more than 30,000 yuan, and dragged down the entire high-end car market. Such a fierce price war is obviously not what manufacturers and distributors are willing to see. Li Wenpu said that the first half of the year recalled the door has a large impact on the Chinese market. Although the first half of the target is basically completed, but due to pressure on the distributor, Manufacturers choose to lower the target.

The boutique joint venture car was ambushed by its own brand

The Fit has been introduced by Gwangben since 2007. Because of its compact and stylish appearance, it has been favored by many young consumers. However, since the beginning of this year, due to the impact of low-priced models of its own brand at the same level, Fit's sales status has not been very optimistic. From the national sales figures in the first half of the year, from March to June, Fit sales fell by more than 70%. In the second-phase list of energy-saving subsidies just announced last week, the Fit 1.5L main model was also not selected. In this context, it is reasonable for Guang Ben to substantially reduce the supply of Fit to ease the inventory pressure of dealers.

Looking into energy subsidies as the main driver of growth in the second half of the year

In addition to individual brands, most of the joint-venture brand dealers including Dongfeng Honda, Shanghai Volkswagen, Dongfeng Citroen, FAW-Volkswagen, Shanghai GM Chevrolet, Dongfeng Peugeot, and Beijing Hyundai all stated that their sales in August were compared with those of 6, 7 The month increased by 5% to 10%.

Dongli Honda Guoji Longsheng General Manager Fu Lili told reporters that in July and August it was considered to be the most difficult two months of sales, but compared to the average monthly sales of 130 to 140 units in the first half of the year, the store sold in July. It reached 160 units and sales in the first half of August were closer to 90 units. "The main reason is still that the current rate of profit is greater, and the country's energy-saving policies to stimulate the people." Fu Lili said.

Taking Dongfeng Peugeot as an example, starting in late July, Dongfeng Peugeot 207, 307, and 408 with a total displacement of 1.6L and below can enjoy an energy saving allowance of 3,000 yuan in advance. Although Dongfeng Peugeot-related models did not appear in the second-phase list of energy-saving subsidies announced last week, the early-subsidy behavior of the manufacturers achieved a better market effect. “The sales volume in August has greatly improved. At the just-concluded 2010 Beijing Auto Show, our sales volume has increased by 50% year-on-year,” said Wu Jiang, manager of Dongfeng Peugeot Beijing Region.

The price war will cool steadily in the second half of the year

"This year's situation is that it began to become more stable in March, showing a trend of not being off-peak in the off-season and not prosperous in the peak season. Although this year's auto market may not be as popular as last year, it is unlikely that there will be significant diving at the end of the year. At the beginning, the price will be relatively stable.” Wang Jingsheng is evaluating the auto market in the second half of the year.

With the arrival of the traditional peak season in the second half of the year and the reduction of supply air caused by this moment to allow manufacturers and dealers to return to rationality, fewer and fewer factors in the auto market can cause price fluctuations. Perhaps we will see some calm in the second half of the year. The scene.

In such a market environment, it is more important for consumers to purchase cars rationally. "Do not blindly put the price in the first place, brand reputation, security, cost-effective, after-sales service is also very important, only pay attention to the low price of car is not wise." Fu Lili said.