Dilemma in the regulation of the automotive industry

Following the increasingly serious traffic jams and triggering the "big stick" of the car-restricting policies of big cities, another regulatory pressure facing the auto industry now is haze. Although it is refuted to simply conclude that the expansion of car ownership is the prime culprit of smog, it cannot be denied that this is indeed an issue closely related to the auto industry.

Traffic jams and atmospheric pollution have become the two sharp swords that hang on the automobile industry. They may at any time stab a sword and block the advancement of the market.

Just as severe real estate regulation will affect economic growth, as an economic pillar industry, such as the overall regulation of the automotive industry, it will also have a negative impact on the release of the national economy, especially domestic demand. This will also be a dilemma. What is different is that the auto industry itself has a smaller bubble than real estate with bubbles.

But it always comes.

General trend

Governance block + smog: two problems in the automotive industry

Smoggy became one of the hottest words on the "two sessions" this year. As a major driver of havoc, the negative factors brought about by the rapid development of the auto industry have naturally been criticized.

The “2012 China Motor Vehicle Pollution Prevention and Control Annual Report” issued by the Ministry of Environmental Protection on December 27 last year showed that motor vehicle pollution has become an important source of air pollution in China and is an important cause of haze and photochemical smog pollution. PM exceeds 90%, HC and CO exceed 70%.

The relevant person in charge of the Beijing Municipal Environmental Protection Bureau also listed figures, “From the impact of smog weather in Beijing, motor vehicles accounted for 22.2%, coal was 16.7%, dust accounted for 16.3%, and industry accounted for 15.7%.” Billion-dollar cars are naturally hard to blame.

Of course, more contradictions point to the oil industry. Ye Shengji, deputy secretary-general of China National Automobile Industry Association, believes that “it is not denied that automobile exhaust emissions are one of the major sources of atmospheric pollutants, but it is by no means the culprit that causes haze weather.” Among them, automobile exhaust emissions are important for smog formation. One of the reasons, but can not ignore the domestic car fuel quality problems. Due to the poor quality of fuel oil for vehicles, the implementation date of the State's relevant vehicle emission standards has been repeatedly postponed. The poor quality of fuel for vehicles and the failure to meet the standard oil supply have seriously affected the normal emission levels of motor vehicles, and have also directly increased the emissions of motor vehicles.

Even so, it was suggested that the "red line of control of the total number of vehicles" be proposed. According to media reports, the deputy chairman of the National People's Congress and the Vice Chairman of Zhejiang Provincial Construction Corporation, Che Xiaodang, proposed that the disorderly development of automobiles brings both urban congestion and environmental pollution. Therefore, the state should consider promoting the orderly development of automobiles as soon as possible. , Delineate the "Red line of control of the total number of vehicles." He believes that a unified national "urban vehicle quantity control index system" should be established, and the city's total car control system and the planned number plate system should be implemented.

Has become a "dilemma in broiled frogs"

According to Rao Da, Secretary-General of the Federation of Travel Unions, the rapid growth of the auto market is definitely not a good thing anymore. Because light is a traffic jam, it is enough to trigger full control of the development of the automotive industry.

At present, traffic jams have spread to impoverished counties, and traffic congestion has sometimes occurred. Domestic vehicle ownership increases by 15-20 million vehicles each year, and roads only increase by 100,000 kilometers per year, indicating that the traffic accidents will occur frequently and become more and more serious. This will result in a series of terrible consequences such as a huge increase in logistics costs, a drop in work efficiency, an increase in the operating costs of enterprises, a deterioration in the urban investment environment, aggravated dissatisfaction among people, and an impact on China’s economic growth.

"That is, the car is boiling the Chinese economic and political frog with warm water," said Rao Da. "There are only two possible outcomes, either the frog immediately jumped out of warm water or the frog died in the pot because the water temperature rose."

Rao Da thinks this is not an exaggeration. If the state does not control, it will cause a large number of social conflicts to accumulate. If it is delayed for five years, it will be regulated. And traffic jams are already a big problem for the whole society. Local governments cannot solve them. The auto market continues to grow at a high speed. It is not a good thing. It will make traffic jams more serious and cause more frequent traffic congestion.

However, people in the auto industry have also pointed out that the implementation of the automobile purchase restriction policy by Kitasatobu is definitely not a permanent solution. Even from the perspective of Beijing’s implementation of policies, it did not slow down the city’s car congestion.

As the deputy to the National People's Congress of the automobile industry, Wang Fengying, president of Great Wall Motors, believes that in the face of the rapid development of the "automobile society" and the series of pressures on transportation and the environment, it is necessary to proceed from the top-level design and comprehensively plan measures for the comprehensive management of the automobile society. At the central government level, when formulating automobile-related policies, we should use the automobile society as a starting point. We recommend that the government pay attention to the compatibility of automobile industry policies and automobile social policies, and make clear in the top-level system the development of China's automobile industry and the automobile society in the next 10 to 20 years. The direction of construction. At the local government level, she suggested that local governments, in advancing urbanization, pay particular attention to integrating transportation strategies and transportation planning into urban planning.

Regulating the automotive industry will impact economic growth

The problem now is that if the overall regulation of the automobile industry is implemented, it will inevitably affect the growth of the macro economy, especially the better release of domestic demand. Before the country responded to the impact of the international financial crisis, it used the auto market as a "carriage" to drive the economic recovery. By implementing the tax and fee reduction policy, the country has promoted the early release of automobile demand and boosted economic growth. In the upcoming implementation of the new urbanization policy, automobile production and consumption are also expected to play an important role.

Zhang Zhiyong, an automotive analyst, believes that Beijing's policy of restricting purchases will hurt the growth of Beijing's auto industry and drag on the overall economic growth rate of Beijing. In 2010, Beijing’s total car sales were around 900,000. After implementing a two-year automobile purchase restriction policy in Beijing in 2012, the total car sales were only over 500,000, only about half of the past market performance. “If the Beijing market loses 400,000 sales in one year, then it is the stagnation of the tens of billions of local economic growth.” In the country, the automobile industry is the pillar industry of the entire national economy that is determined by the country. The sales of 20 million vehicles is a huge and complex economic interest relationship.

“Under the current technological conditions, once the country implements a comprehensive regulation of the automobile industry, the newly developed Chinese automobile industry will be pushed into the development quagmire.” Zhang Zhiyong said, and the automotive industry is a related degree. In a very high industry, the implementation of controls will not only make the development of China's automobile industry extremely difficult, but will also drag on to the development of many other industries.

On the other hand, the automotive industry and real estate are very different. Zhang Zhiyong believes that cars are ordinary consumer goods. Before and after the family should have the same rights to consume cars, and should not be deprived of. There is no speculative bubble in the auto market. The auto industry and auto market are completely fair and transparent competitive markets. Unlike real estate, there are always too many grey areas. Therefore, "Although China can try to regulate and control the use of automobiles, it must not regulate the normal growth in the production and sales of the automobile industry."

Rao Da’s predictions are that if the regulatory policies are not introduced this year, the auto market growth rate will be around 10%, so multinational car companies will pay more attention to the Chinese market. However, this year, the probability of promulgation of the regulation and control policies will increase. It is estimated that the strength of the first automobile regulation will not be large, and the auto market growth rate will be about 5%. “The automobile regulation that should have been implemented for a long time. The auto market is likely to be high and low this year. It is hoped that the manufacturer’s annual sales plan will not be set high.”

Way out

Raising fuel tax will have immediate effect on “blocking blockage”

How should the policy side regulate the auto industry?

Rao Da analyzes that traffic jams in China are more serious than in all developing countries. This is due to the fact that Chinese citizens are most eager to pursue modern life and that the automobile market is seriously ahead of the development; while Chinese people have more land and less land; the country does not intensify road congestion every year. To invest more than RMB 5 trillion, the state does not have such a lot of money; there are many loopholes in traffic management. For example, half of Beijing’s vehicles do not have fixed parking spaces that do not occupy roads; parking fees are low; the rate of automobile operations is high; traffic is not good, etc. The combined effect of factors.

Therefore, he believes that the state's regulation and control is to drastically reduce the driving rate of the car. The international practice of this policy is to substantially increase the fuel tax, and has an immediate effect in preventing traffic congestion and reducing congestion. “This policy is in Europe and Japan. Developed countries have already implemented it for decades, so they can be implemented without pilots.” It is also necessary to accelerate the construction of roads, railways, subways and urban roads. The money needed can be gradually solved through the increase of fuel tax revenue. This is already the most urgent issue in China. Things to do. "Advance control and small adjustments once a year can prevent catastrophic consequences and increase the control of logistics and CPI."

trend

Guangzhou purchase policy or "fine-tuning"

Recently, the Guangzhou Municipal Transportation Work Leading Group Office issued a notice that Guangzhou's stock of used car transactions was delayed until the end of June this year. This may be the precursor to the "fine-tuning" of the Guangzhou automobile purchase restriction policy. According to industry sources, after one year of implementation, the automobile purchase restriction policy is expected to make some adjustments.

Recorded used car delayed three months trading

The Guangzhou Communications Committee stated that after conducting investigations and studies on the used car market in Guangzhou and neighboring cities, it was decided to postpone the on-licensing application for a second-hand car transaction for a period of three months until June 30 this year. In accordance with the relevant provisions of the "Trial Regulations for the Management of the Medium and Small Passenger Cars in Guangzhou Municipality," the used car that was registered and filed by the industry and commerce departments before July 1st, 2012, will be able to handle a transfer registration directly before March 31, 2013. Procedures, and no update indicators.

For this news, Chao Zhidong, head of the second-hand car market at Guangjun, told the Nanfang Daily reporter that this limited promotion of the current transaction volume of the used car market in Guangzhou. "If you need to buy a used car, you will buy it sooner. Even if you have a three-month delay, you don't want to buy it or you won't get it. This news does not really stimulate the used car consumer market."

Chao Zhidong believes that the real reason for the sharp drop in the volume of second-hand car transactions after the purchase restriction in Guangzhou was because of the obstruction of circulation. The “import” and “export” of used cars are tightened at the same time: vehicles that should be used in the used car market are tightly held by consumers and cause difficulties in getting cars; while the free circulation of the same city causes the circulation speed of used cars to change. SLOW. Because existing car owners in Guangzhou have only one chance to redeem a new car, and the new car's displacement must be lower than the old car's displacement, owners will be more cautious in replacing new cars; in addition, after the limit-limit policy, Guangzhou's used car There are many procedures for relocation abroad and transaction costs have risen sharply, leading to a substantial drop in the prices of used car purchases in the market.

I hope that there will be no increase in used cars in the city

Chao Zhidong also believes that despite all the energy conservation and emissions reductions advocated by the government, the vehicle restrictions currently imposed are all supported, but the government should also consider the survival space of the used car market in Guangzhou. For example, allowing non-incremental used cars to be circulated in Guangzhou, renewing the number of vehicle owner vehicle updates, issuing turnover indicators to the used car market, and eliminating displacement restrictions for vehicle replacement, etc., while effectively controlling the total number of cars, effectively increasing the number of used cars. The circulation efficiency, the rational use of the circulation function of the used car market, the old vehicles in the city moved out of the field.

Currently, the unsold used cars in Guangzhou are mainly based on small-displacement vehicles. The reporter learned from the second-hand car market of Guangjun that the used car with a record of 1.5L-2.5L accounted for 40% of the total and 2.5L or more of the used cars. Amount of used car registrations accounted for only 10% of the total, and the remaining 50% were all focused on small displacements below 1.5L.

The Guangzhou Auto Circulation Association also suggested that the use of incremental second-hand vehicles be included in the scope of the restrictions, and the increase in indicators should be applied for transactions after notification. For non-increased second-hand car transactions, because it will not increase the city's car ownership, it should be given free circulation.

Guangzhou restriction policy may "fine tune"

According to sources inside the company, the Guangzhou auto purchase restriction policy is expected to fine-tune the details of second-hand car trading rules after it has been implemented for one full year.

In recent days, local dealers and the Internet continue to circulate, the owner of the new car replacement purchase must be lower than the old vehicle emission regulations, will be modified to replace the new car to 2.0 liters, so that some early purchase of low-emission small car owners , can achieve the upgrade of car use. In addition, the “suburban card” optimization policy is also expected to be implemented in the suburbs, and it is no longer a one-size-fits-all approach. However, these rumours have not been answered and confirmed by authoritative departments.