Due to the impact of the global financial crisis, the contradiction between overcapacity and oversupply in China's PVC industry has become increasingly prominent, and import sources have had a huge impact on the domestic market. In 2010, China's PVC industry will still be in a relatively difficult period of integration. The profitability of PVC manufacturing companies is not good, and most companies still face greater pressures in terms of costs, production, and operations.
- The pace of energy expansion has not yet stopped From the perspective of changes in production capacity, although the current industry profitability is not good, the problem of supply exceeding demand is very obvious, but the pace of expansion of production capacity has not stopped. According to statistics from China Chlor-Alkali Network, in 2010, China plans to add 4.44 million tons of PVC production capacity. According to past practice, the final capacity expansion will be approximately 50% to 60% of the planned production capacity, so it is expected that the final production capacity will be realized. The increment will still be at a level of more than 2 million tons, and the pressure of overcapacity will be further manifested. At the same time, at the same time as new production capacity was formed, some enterprises with poor competitiveness also withdrew from the stage of history. Taking 2009 as an example, the productive capacity of unused capacity for more than half a year has reached 1 million tons, so the process of expanding production is also a process of industry consolidation from another perspective.
——Fluctuation of high price fluctuations From the perspective of price fluctuations, the market price of PVC in 2009 was mostly in the range of 6000 to 7500 yuan (ton price, the same below), which is more obvious than the fluctuation range of 5000 to 9,000 yuan in 2008. By reducing, from this analysis, the situation of the market's big ups and downs will not appear in 2010, and the cost and supply-demand relationship are still the key to determine the market price. As the problem of overcapacity will remain prominent, the situation of oversupply will hardly change. Therefore, market prices will hardly be greatly improved. However, due to the high price of raw materials such as calcium carbide and high ethylene prices, especially after rising electricity prices, cost support The factors will also play a big role, so the market price of PVC is unlikely to fall sharply. It is expected that the market price of PVC in China will be volatile in a small range in 2010, but due to the emergence of PVC futures, it is necessary to pay constant attention to the impact and magnification factors of the futures market on the spot market price changes.
- Economic recovery has driven demand Since the end of 2009, China's economy, including the global economy, has shown signs of recovery to some extent. Chlor-alkali products, which are the basic materials of the national economy, have always been a trend indicator for economic development, especially the relatively strong real estate industry. The relevant demand for PVC will be driven to a certain extent, so it is necessary to have confidence in the growth of the PVC downstream industry in 2010, and it is not necessary to be blindly pessimistic.
——Intensifying Production and Consumption Contradictions From the perspective of industrial layout, the central and western regions are the key areas for new production capacity. With the new expansion projects put into operation, the proportion of the national production capacity and production in the central and western regions will increase further, but The demand in the central and western regions is limited, so the contradiction between PVC production sites and consumer sites will become more apparent. The logistics difficulties that accompany it are also worth paying attention to, especially in autumn and winter seasons, the transportation of agricultural and sideline products and the uncertainties of rain and snow will cause a significant impact on PVC in the western region.
- Exports are expected to return to the dawn In terms of imports and exports, in 2009 the number of exports fell sharply under the influence of the financial crisis, and some low-cost sources in foreign countries also flooded into China, causing an impact on the domestic market. However, with the improvement of the economic situation, the import volume has shown a declining trend, and export sales have gradually resumed. The anti-dumping review of PVC and the increase in export tax rebates for PVC have not achieved immediate results in 2009. However, with the changes in the international trade situation, anti-dumping and export tax rebates are strategic for the import and export of PVC. policy. It is expected that the number of imported PVC will continue to show a declining trend in 2010, and the export of PVC will also return to dawn.
——Increase in pressure for safety and environmental protection In order to protect the environment, achieve energy conservation and emission reduction, and clean production, relevant government departments set targets for chlor-alkali for energy conservation and emission reduction, and the environmental protection pressures faced by the industry have increased significantly; and PVC manufacturers should also reduce mercury. Use, as well as related international policies to reduce carbon emissions, are of great concern. In addition, the State Administration of Work Safety promotes safety standardization. It is recommended that the chlor-alkali industry compile safety standardization manuals and increase its promotion efforts. China's PVC industry will face greater security pressure in the future.
——Influence of futures on spot prices On May 25, 2009, PVC futures contracts were formally listed on the Dalian Commodity Exchange. PVC futures were sought after by various parties after the launch of the PVC futures. Volume and volume of contracts were substantially increased in the short term. Domestic PVC The active participation of enterprises in the hedging process of PVC futures played a very important role in the promotion of PVC futures to some extent. With the gradual maturity of PVC futures and the increase in awareness of PVC futures by production companies, it can be expected that future PVC futures will not only achieve the role of price positioning, but also their impact on the PVC industry will gradually deepen. The PVC companies will pay high attention to PVC futures regardless of their participation.
- The pace of energy expansion has not yet stopped From the perspective of changes in production capacity, although the current industry profitability is not good, the problem of supply exceeding demand is very obvious, but the pace of expansion of production capacity has not stopped. According to statistics from China Chlor-Alkali Network, in 2010, China plans to add 4.44 million tons of PVC production capacity. According to past practice, the final capacity expansion will be approximately 50% to 60% of the planned production capacity, so it is expected that the final production capacity will be realized. The increment will still be at a level of more than 2 million tons, and the pressure of overcapacity will be further manifested. At the same time, at the same time as new production capacity was formed, some enterprises with poor competitiveness also withdrew from the stage of history. Taking 2009 as an example, the productive capacity of unused capacity for more than half a year has reached 1 million tons, so the process of expanding production is also a process of industry consolidation from another perspective.
——Fluctuation of high price fluctuations From the perspective of price fluctuations, the market price of PVC in 2009 was mostly in the range of 6000 to 7500 yuan (ton price, the same below), which is more obvious than the fluctuation range of 5000 to 9,000 yuan in 2008. By reducing, from this analysis, the situation of the market's big ups and downs will not appear in 2010, and the cost and supply-demand relationship are still the key to determine the market price. As the problem of overcapacity will remain prominent, the situation of oversupply will hardly change. Therefore, market prices will hardly be greatly improved. However, due to the high price of raw materials such as calcium carbide and high ethylene prices, especially after rising electricity prices, cost support The factors will also play a big role, so the market price of PVC is unlikely to fall sharply. It is expected that the market price of PVC in China will be volatile in a small range in 2010, but due to the emergence of PVC futures, it is necessary to pay constant attention to the impact and magnification factors of the futures market on the spot market price changes.
- Economic recovery has driven demand Since the end of 2009, China's economy, including the global economy, has shown signs of recovery to some extent. Chlor-alkali products, which are the basic materials of the national economy, have always been a trend indicator for economic development, especially the relatively strong real estate industry. The relevant demand for PVC will be driven to a certain extent, so it is necessary to have confidence in the growth of the PVC downstream industry in 2010, and it is not necessary to be blindly pessimistic.
——Intensifying Production and Consumption Contradictions From the perspective of industrial layout, the central and western regions are the key areas for new production capacity. With the new expansion projects put into operation, the proportion of the national production capacity and production in the central and western regions will increase further, but The demand in the central and western regions is limited, so the contradiction between PVC production sites and consumer sites will become more apparent. The logistics difficulties that accompany it are also worth paying attention to, especially in autumn and winter seasons, the transportation of agricultural and sideline products and the uncertainties of rain and snow will cause a significant impact on PVC in the western region.
- Exports are expected to return to the dawn In terms of imports and exports, in 2009 the number of exports fell sharply under the influence of the financial crisis, and some low-cost sources in foreign countries also flooded into China, causing an impact on the domestic market. However, with the improvement of the economic situation, the import volume has shown a declining trend, and export sales have gradually resumed. The anti-dumping review of PVC and the increase in export tax rebates for PVC have not achieved immediate results in 2009. However, with the changes in the international trade situation, anti-dumping and export tax rebates are strategic for the import and export of PVC. policy. It is expected that the number of imported PVC will continue to show a declining trend in 2010, and the export of PVC will also return to dawn.
——Increase in pressure for safety and environmental protection In order to protect the environment, achieve energy conservation and emission reduction, and clean production, relevant government departments set targets for chlor-alkali for energy conservation and emission reduction, and the environmental protection pressures faced by the industry have increased significantly; and PVC manufacturers should also reduce mercury. Use, as well as related international policies to reduce carbon emissions, are of great concern. In addition, the State Administration of Work Safety promotes safety standardization. It is recommended that the chlor-alkali industry compile safety standardization manuals and increase its promotion efforts. China's PVC industry will face greater security pressure in the future.
——Influence of futures on spot prices On May 25, 2009, PVC futures contracts were formally listed on the Dalian Commodity Exchange. PVC futures were sought after by various parties after the launch of the PVC futures. Volume and volume of contracts were substantially increased in the short term. Domestic PVC The active participation of enterprises in the hedging process of PVC futures played a very important role in the promotion of PVC futures to some extent. With the gradual maturity of PVC futures and the increase in awareness of PVC futures by production companies, it can be expected that future PVC futures will not only achieve the role of price positioning, but also their impact on the PVC industry will gradually deepen. The PVC companies will pay high attention to PVC futures regardless of their participation.
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