Industrial electricity growth falls, economic downward pressure increases

According to data released by the National Energy Administration a few days ago, from January to May, the total electricity consumption of the whole society was 1961.8 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 5.8%. Lu Junling, deputy inspector of the National Development and Reform Commission’s Economic Operations Regulation Bureau, said that the overall fall in electricity use was mainly reflected in the fall in the growth rate of secondary electricity and industrial electricity, reflecting the increasing downward pressure on the economy.

Data show that in May, the total electricity consumption of the entire society was 406.1 billion kWh, an increase of 5.2% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 1.5 percentage points higher than that in April.

Lu Junling said that the change in electricity demand has been called the "barometer" and "wind vane" of economic operation. In the current situation of increasing economic operating pressure, power consumption has also undergone some changes. From January to May, there were three provinces and cities in Liaoning, Jilin, Zhejiang, Chongqing, and Gansu with growth rates of less than 3%. In May, there were three provinces and cities with negative electricity growth: Shanghai, Hubei, and Jiangxi.

"This trend may be related to China's current economic operating pressure, especially the slowdown in the growth of some investment has a great relationship." Lu Junling said.

Data show that from January to May, the total electricity consumption of the whole society was 1961.8 billion kWh, an increase of 5.8% year-on-year. Lu Junling said that considering the reduction in electricity use rate and the slowdown in the growth rate of industrial added value, we consider that in the first five months, the growth rate of electricity use in the country fell by 6.25 percentage points, but the industrial added value fell by 2.6 percentage points, so in general, The fall in electricity use is greater than the fall in industrial value added. This situation has a significant relationship with the electricity consumption structure.

According to reports, China's tertiary industry only accounts for 12% of total electricity consumption, but the tertiary industry's added value accounted for 46% of GDP. The secondary industry accounts for 73% of the total electricity consumption, but the secondary industry's added value accounted for only 47.6% of GDP. The proportion of the secondary industry and the tertiary industry in GDP is the same, but the proportion of occupied electricity is very different. . "So, the overall drop in electricity consumption is mainly reflected in the decline in secondary electricity and industrial electricity consumption, including metallurgy and building materials," Lu Junling said.

The National Energy Administration predicts that during the summer peak season this year, it is expected that this year's power gap will be significantly reduced compared with previous years. Overall, the largest gap accounted for less than 3% of the maximum electricity load, which is the lightest level of power shortage. The maximum daily electricity consumption may reach 15.5 billion to 16 billion kilowatt-hours. In the peak period, the nation's largest power gap is about 18 million kilowatts, and the tighter regions are mainly Zhejiang, Guangdong, Jiangsu, Hebei, and Chongqing. If there is an extreme situation such as sudden flooding in the flood season, long duration of high-temperature and high-humidity weather, the power gap may further increase.

Lu Junling said that the current special attention and precautions are that, when electricity supply and demand are relatively loose, high-energy-consuming industries often have the urge to accelerate expansion, and the transition from relatively loose to comprehensive tension is also very rapid. This has historical experience and lessons. For example, in 2009, the first seven months of electricity use or negative growth, but not the end of the year, coal-fired oil and gas transport has been a comprehensive emergency.

Lu Junling said that due to factors such as the loss of coal-fired power plants, financing difficulties, the cyclical increase in supporting documents, and the declining power demand increase in recent years, the contradiction between the construction of thermal power projects has been very prominent this year, and there has been widespread local and business competition. Promote the slowdown of early work; compete for approval and start construction slowdown.

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