According to statistics, since 2017, the retail prices of gasoline and diesel in China have experienced a total of 10 increases, 6 reductions and 7 strandings. The 89 petrol and No. 0 diesel prices have been increased by 365 yuan/ton and 350 yuan/ton respectively. Each liter was raised by 0.27 yuan and 0.30 yuan respectively.
Jinlian Li, an analyst of refined oil products, said in an interview with the “Securities Daily†reporter yesterday that on December 28th, the last price adjustment window period of this year will usher in. In view of the recent obvious decline in international oil prices, after entering a new round of pricing cycles, Retail prices may be revised down. However, after mid-late and late, Lido did its best and the international oil price or shocks retraced. Therefore, it is not precluded from continuing.
Jinlianchuang Gasoline and Diesel Retail Price Forecasting Model shows that: During the current round of pricing cycle, the agreement of OPEC to extend production cuts has been reached again, boosting international oil prices, but it is suppressed by both US crude oil production and refined oil inventories. International oil prices are under pressure. Falling, the overall trend of crude oil turmoil in the near future is obvious. As of December 8th (the sixth working day), the average price of the reference crude oil varieties was US$60.22/barrel, with a rate of change of -0.51%, and the corresponding gasoline and diesel prices would be lowered by RMB 25/t.
According to China's "Administrative Measures on Oil Price," domestic gasoline and diesel prices are adjusted every 10 working days according to changes in crude oil prices in the international market, and the effective date of price adjustment is 24 hours on the day of price adjustment. When the price adjustment rate is lower than 50 yuan per ton, no adjustment is made, and the unadjusted amount will be added or offset during the next price adjustment. From this calculation, the current round of the price adjustment window will be at 24:00 on December 14.
Zhu Huichun, an oil product analyst at Zhuo Chuang Information Technology, predicts that in the short term Europe and the United States crude oil will continue to oscillate, the rate of change will remain low and volatile, and the adjustment range of gasoline and diesel will be difficult to reach 50 yuan/ton. This round of price adjustment faces a grounding. As the weather turns cold, the demand for diesel terminals has gradually declined, which has eased the situation of diesel resources. Some of the annual tasks have not yet been completed, and oil companies will increase their sales efforts. The fundamentals of supply and demand in the refined oil market are the main factors affecting their prices. At present, the wholesale price is at a high level and the market operation risks are relatively high. It is recommended that traders keep reasonable inventory to reduce risks.
Li Yang said that the OPEC meeting has settled and the short-term international crude oil market speculation will come to an end. The increase in U.S. end product oil supply and lower demand will keep crude oil prices low and volatile. The current adjustment of the retail price adjustment is still within the 50-ton price adjustment red line. Therefore, according to the current crude oil price level, the domestic retail price of gasoline and diesel may stay on hold until the expiry of the current round of valuation, but if international crude oil falls sharply Will face downward adjustments.
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